exactly - there are plenty of reasons to get mad about the coaching and the executing but honestly the 4th downs is 100% not a legit reason
-
Welcome to PurpleFlock! Be sure to sign up here so that you can chat with your fellow Ravens fans.
The Random Thought Thread
- Thread starter The Greek
- Start date
exactly - there are plenty of reasons to get mad about the coaching and the executing but honestly the 4th downs is 100% not a legit reason
RL52TheGreatest
Ravens Ring of Honor
Yup. I would have been more mad if we just kicked the FGs and went conservative after going for it all year. Obviously Tucker is easy points, but I'd rather be aggressive and play for the win rather than settling for a "chance" to win.
and it was less than a yard. The only thing I disagree with was the way we went about doing it as we were under center on that call. We fooled know one with that call, but the 4th down on both occasions I agree with them going for it.
Tank
Hall of Famer
The weighted consequence of not making it on 4th down is an integral part of the analysis for the decision. I think one would have to say handing over momentum in a playoff game carries a ton more weight than it does in the regular season. Not sure but I’m guessing we were also not behind on the scoreboard when most of those regular season attempts occurred.
Last edited:
right but the weighted consequence of not making it is taken into account in the analytics in terms of the win probability vs change in game win probability of both making it and not making it...
and then on top of that harbs makes the call based on his feel for the game situation and whether he thinks we'll get it
if you arent going to go for it on 4th and less than 1 when trailing then when are you ever going to go for it?
absolute no brainer to me
airconteka
MVP
Except the one against the Hawks probably won us the game and was season defining. Terrible play calling and execution in the play off. I honestly believe if we hand off to Gus on both of those plays we convert.
Tank
Hall of Famer
Not talking about the weighted consequence of not getting the points, referring to the consequence of handing over momentum and a mental victory to the other team. Rhythm and momentum support proper execution and drives success, and lack of it is what often contributes to a lack of execution especially with inexperienced players. For me a basic risk analysis shows in that situation there was much more to lose than than just points.We were already in a bit of a hole with the pick and needlessly just dug it deeper while also bolstering the opponents confidence.
cdp
Ravens Ring of Honor
Talking about weighted probabilities and momentum doesn't make sense. You can't account for momentum because it doesn't have a statistically significant effect. You also have to separate decision and outcome. The decision to go for it was absolutely right like rossi pointed out a couple of posts ago, but Roman didn't call the best play and execution left a lot to be desired.
Tank
Hall of Famer
Not suggesting it is quantifiable as a number in calculating probability. But when doing an analysis to make the decision you absolutely have to account for the situation including rhythm and momentum.
When making a decision involving people and their performance basing that decision purely on a statistical analysis without doing basic risk analysis(including outcome) is poor situational awareness and poor management. Not saying Harbs did that, don't know, just that it wasn't the best decision given the situation.
Last edited:
Tank
Hall of Famer
Probably true, and a completely different situation. Regular season, away game, big underdog. Compared to playoff game, home game, huge favorite.
Titans were fired up, owning the trenches and selling out on the run. Thinking maybe play action(with proper execution, lol) was the call
SaltyDog
MVP
I think it’s fair to question analytics and how they are being used in real game situations. My problem with analytics is that I can’t see the data, so I don’t know what the probabilities are. Do they account for key players who are not at 100%? Do they account for a team who has not played most of their starters for 3 weeks? I have seen many comments where people blindly accept the analytics while criticizing play calls on the very same play. So it’s ok to criticize coordinators for their play calls or players for execution, but not Harbaugh for his analytics based decision?
watch the filmstudy short on analytics.
Earl Thomas's daughter Kaleigh absolutely killing it at the pro bowl:
JO_75
Hall of Famer
Ozzy The Grizzly Bear has predicted the winner of the Super Bowl, the 49ers. It is a yearly deal where he is 6-1 in predictions. Only loss was picking the Broncos over the Seahawks. Though I saw this on Reddit originally and this comment made laugh......
"That’s not saying much, considering your average bear would pick Trubisky over Mahomes and Watson."
https://billingsgazette.com/news/lo...cle_c6d86e39-1f27-5f7f-a568-ce3a788fe133.html
"That’s not saying much, considering your average bear would pick Trubisky over Mahomes and Watson."
https://billingsgazette.com/news/lo...cle_c6d86e39-1f27-5f7f-a568-ce3a788fe133.html
SaltyDog
MVP
Can you point me to it?
We have a partnership with Ken McKusick and they are posted in their own section on our website. All of Ken McKusick's podcasts are under the Filmstudy Baltimore section, however he also has his own site called filmstudybaltimore.com
https://filmstudybaltimore.com/short-4th-down/
SaltyDog
MVP
Thanks.
That clip enhances my concerns about the over use of analytics. There are many variables that cannot be accounted for. For example; defensive alignment, play selection, momentum, negative impact if you don’t make the first down, etc. They discussed the second 4th down attempt in detail, which I was actually in favor of. The first one was the one I had issues with. We were down by 7, inside our own 50 yard line, and there was still over3 quarters left in the game. So what were the probabilities of our defense keeping them from scoring 3 or 7 points, vs. Giving Tenn a short field and them scoring at least 3 points, and giving them momentum?
IMO analytics are a tool in the tool chest but I don’t believe that they should be used as the end all decision maker on every situation. There are just too many variables that cannot be accounted for. Especially in a playoff game where it’s win or go home.
Dom McRaven
Hall of Famer
Imagine if the Chiefs ever get an elite defense.
*shudders*
*shudders*
Tank
Hall of Famer
They would need to be awfully creative to make that happen, especially considering the $200 mil. QB contract on the horizon.
So a few points I’ll respond with:
- At the moment that is how analytics are being used - as a supplementary tool for harbs to use live - the numbers get given to him and he makes a decision based on game-feel, whether he thinks we’ll make it, and what those numbers tell him
- The analytics do account for the change in win probability if you don’t make it - the risk factor is taken into account in the 2 numbers that Harbs gets given in those situations
- So of your complaints most of them are accounted for either by the analytics themselves or by harbs at the time
- The only thing it can’t account for is momentum - but that’s something that can only really be taken into account in hindsight because you never know whether momentum will actually change in a given situation and it’s not quantifiable either - it’s a pretty nebulous concept
- But to criticise analytics as if it’s the be-all-end-all is to misunderstand how they’re being used right now