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The Random Thought Thread

rmcjacket23 said:
I don't think the league needs to do anything. It should be on the teams. If they don't want to play high $ to average QBs, then don't do it. They're not forced into doing anything.

It's a double-edged sword that can't be solved. Nobody saw the decline of Carson Wentz coming, and if the Eagles move on from him, and he ends up on a team with a competent Oline and some actual receivers, he's going to decimate other teams and make the whole league look bad for doubting him.

Jared Goff pretty much checked every box of what you wanted for a franchise QB when they handed him his extension. 11-4 in 2017, 13-3 in 2018, and a SB appearance. Strong statistical numbers in both years. He checked the box as a statistical quality player, and as a winning player.

Cousins was a stat compiler, much in the vein of a Stafford, Ryan, etc.

Basically it comes down to this... the ONLY franchise QBs who are living up to their 2nd contracts are guys who a) put up quality statistics and b) win a lot of football games. And realistically, there's less than 10 of those guys in the whole league.

As pretty much every team in the league as figured out, it'll take you multiple iterations of high draft picks and talent development to find somebody who does both. And when you do, sometimes even then, you get a Jared Goff.

You can pay the stat guy a lot of money, and he may never win anything (Stafford, Cousins). You can also pay the guy who wins a lot but isn't stat-heavy a lot (Flacco), but when the winning stops, all you have is a guy who isn't very good.

There's nothing the league can do to stop that. Putting in some special QB "salary cap" adjustment only favors teams that suck at evaluating QB talent. NFL teams are the problem, and its up to them to correct the mistakes.
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Very well written. I only disagree on the Jared Goff evaluation. I never was a fan of Goff and always felt he was an Andy Dalton type of player. Even in the pros I always thought it was more on the team around him and Sean McVay than his talent.

Totally agree with Cousins and Ryan, but Stafford has never really had a decent team. Cousins should have received the fully guaranteed contract he received from the Vikings. Wow, the Skins / Football Team actually did something right.
 
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Simba said:
Leader of men. Rave reviews from everyone to have played for him. It’s easy to look at all of these offensive minded coaches but that’s not all that is considered. If he puts together the right staff and shows an ability to lead, he’ll find a job eventually even if it’s not this year. That’s precisely why a guy like Joe Judge got the job in New York - he’s a good leader.
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1. "leader of men" is a trait that 100% of coaches being considered will have. If they didn't have it, they wouldn't be getting interviewed. By definition, anybody who's had success as a HC elsewhere or being a coordinator of a successful unit has shown an ability to "lead men".
2. Putting together the right staff is a lot taller task than it seems, and quite frankly, if the staff you bring is critical to the hiring process, I wouldn't hire you.
3. Joe Judge got a job in NY because he ran a great unit for several years on a winning team and coached along the greatest coach ever. Pretty much anybody that coaches alongside Belichick for an extended period of time gets a HC gig. Pretty much all of them fail of course, which isn't good, but Wink doesn't have that pedigree to fall back on either.

I think Wink checks every box of the like Greg Roman, Dean Pees, Rex Ryan type of coaches. Works great with players, exceptionally good at the specific things they do. Never going to be the kind of guy who's going to succeed as a HC, and likely won't get many, if any, opportunities to do so, largely because he fits the mold of previous coaches who failed to do so.
 
cdp said:
When I wrote league I actually ment teams. Stafford isn't a stat compiler. McVay has been reading the defense for Goff since he took over. Goff hasn't done anything. McVay did his best to mask the deficiencies of Goff (i.e. every play from under center was play action).
Wentz hasn't done anything outside one season. Flacco pre injury won us games and a SB, but when it was time to overcome a less talented roster we didn't make offs once. Teams should show some resilience and don't overpay for average qbs.
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Yeah I disagree here.
1. Matt Stafford is your prototypical stat compiler.
Four straight seasons of over 600 pass attempts, eight straight seasons over 550 pass attempts
Seven straights seasons of at least 4,200 passing yards
At least 20 TD passes in 9 of 10 years, with the only year coming up short he missed half the season.
And a sub .500 record in his career, with only 3 playoff appearances and zero wins
Will finish his career as a top 10 passer in the history of the league. Will finish ahead of the likes of Elway and possibly Marino.
If he's not a compiler, nobody is.
2. I'm not a Goff fan either, but bad QBs in good systems don't make it to SB's. They may make the playoffs or advance occasionally, but that grouping works very well. If I'm going to start knocking QBs for being "system only" players, then that list is a mile long in this league, and it starts right here in Baltimore too.
3. Wentz was actually very good from 2017 through 2019. At least 7.0 YPA every season, high TD ratios, very limited in terms of turnovers. 25-15 as a starter. Checked every box.

I'm fine with saying teams should show resiliency, but there's also one thing you're overlooking.... everybody gets fired along the way. Coaches, players, etc. Everybody. Let Wentz walk, and spend 4-5 years trying to draft or develop some guy who never pans out. You think those coaches or front office personnel are around after that? The only guy who stays around in those situations are Ownership, and they're not usually the people you want evaluating talent.

You're better off being the Eagles and overpaying a QB who was critical to you winning a SB, than being one of the like dozen or so NFL teams who have just been churning through bad QB after bad QB after bad QB, from the draft, for a decade or longer.
 
cdp said:
Pretty much everyone around the league. Rapoport mentioned this on twitter and in the pre-game show. Rapoport even said that the Clemson OC, Marvin Lewis and Lovie Smith are potential assistant coaches for Winks' staff. Wink wouldn't call guys if knew he wasn't a candidate.
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Rapoport has also written a piece like that for about 10 different "candidates" this offseason, and wrote the same thing about Wink 12 months ago, when he didn't get a gig and wasn't interviewed for nearly as many as people suspected either.

If that's his targeted staff, good luck. I'm not sure what would be appealing about bringing Marvin Lewis or Lovie Smith in. Focus should be on a strong OC, which is possible, but again, if I'm a team that's hiring a HC with a contingency of approving their OC, its probably not a good hire to begin with.
 
That dude Tomlinson (sp?) has been great so far. Would love to retain him as our 3rd TE unless the FO wants to give Lamar another receiving TE.
 
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Simba said:
If Wink gets a HC job like people are expecting at this point, I'm curious who moves up to DC. We've traditionally promoted from within and I wouldn't think this year would be any different. Chris Hewitt seems like the obvious candidate, but wouldn't count out Mike MacDonald either, who has gotten a lot of praise in recent years.
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one of those 2 almost certainly takes over - i think chris hewitt more likely to get the nod because of his longer tenure but macdonald definitely a possibility too
 
rmcjacket23 said:
Who is expecting it? I'm certainly not. I'd actually be quite surprised if he does get hired as a HC.

Which team who's going to have a HC vacancy is a good fit for Wink at this point?

I can't see any way the Jets hire him. I can't see any way the Jags hire him. I can't see the Chargers hiring him either.

Pretty much leaves Houston, Atlanta, and Detroit. Atlanta and Detroit literally just fired guys who are extremely similar to Wink, and Houston, in my opinion, is going to look for someone far more splashy.

I expect him to get some interviews, but I don't think he'll be high on the consideration list. There's other DC's who will be just as qualified as he is, and his biggest problem will continue to be that any team that's hiring him will want to make damn sure he's got a very strong, highly desirable, OC either on the staff or coming with Wink. He's been linked to Joe Brady, but there's a lot of contingencies there I think. And if people liked Joe Brady enough, I don't know why they'd just hire him instead.
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based on ian rapoport referring to him as one of the top candidates

probably worth pointing out that some of the more recent first-time defensive HC hires have worked out pretty well...

sean mcdermott, mike vrabel, brian flores

obviously that's not necessarily what all teams are looking for but there have been some great hires on the defensive side

it's obviously all about tabbing the OC to come with you - last year Wink had tabbed Joe Brady as his OC if he got hired and this year he's got another OC in mind for his OC this year (think it might be the Clemson OC but not sure)

Not saying that Wink will get a job but it's not ridiculous to think he might be coveted especially with how highly regarded he is
 
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cdp said:
When I wrote league I actually ment teams. Stafford isn't a stat compiler. McVay has been reading the defense for Goff since he took over. Goff hasn't done anything. McVay did his best to mask the deficiencies of Goff (i.e. every play from under center was play action).
Wentz hasn't done anything outside one season. Flacco pre injury won us games and a SB, but when it was time to overcome a less talented roster we didn't make offs once. Teams should show some resilience and don't overpay for average qbs.
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that goff contract was a huge mistake - he had one good season in 2018 but it looks like a massive outlier

wentz at least looked like an MVP before he went down and Nick Foles took them to a superbowl and showed signs in other years that he was a high quality QB
 
rmcjacket23 said:
Rapoport has also written a piece like that for about 10 different "candidates" this offseason, and wrote the same thing about Wink 12 months ago, when he didn't get a gig and wasn't interviewed for nearly as many as people suspected either.

If that's his targeted staff, good luck. I'm not sure what would be appealing about bringing Marvin Lewis or Lovie Smith in. Focus should be on a strong OC, which is possible, but again, if I'm a team that's hiring a HC with a contingency of approving their OC, its probably not a good hire to begin with.
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You never know tbh. With the right team and hiring the right coordinators, he can very well be successful.
 
rossihunter2 said:
that goff contract was a huge mistake - he had one good season in 2018 but it looks like a massive outlier

wentz at least looked like an MVP before he went down and Nick Foles took them to a superbowl and showed signs in other years that he was a high quality QB
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Wentz looked great under that rpo system.. once that was over, he was over.
 
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rmcjacket23 said:
2. Putting together the right staff is a lot taller task than it seems, and quite frankly, if the staff you bring is critical to the hiring process, I wouldn't hire you.
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except part of the job of being a HC is assembling a high quality staff - you arent expected to run every unit (or in many cases any unit) - you're expected to bring in guys you trust and who are high quality coaches and mesh them into a cohesive whole

it would be naive for a defensive coach not to have an offensive coordinator in mind/on staff ready to come with them because it would completely ignore the reality of the league

it would honestly be a bad sign if a HC candidate didn't bring their hypothetical staffing into the interview process...

otherwise no defensive or special teams coach would ever be hired as a HC
 
rmcjacket23 said:
Yeah I disagree here.
1. Matt Stafford is your prototypical stat compiler.
Four straight seasons of over 600 pass attempts, eight straight seasons over 550 pass attempts
Seven straights seasons of at least 4,200 passing yards
At least 20 TD passes in 9 of 10 years, with the only year coming up short he missed half the season.
And a sub .500 record in his career, with only 3 playoff appearances and zero wins
Will finish his career as a top 10 passer in the history of the league. Will finish ahead of the likes of Elway and possibly Marino.
If he's not a compiler, nobody is.
2. I'm not a Goff fan either, but bad QBs in good systems don't make it to SB's. They may make the playoffs or advance occasionally, but that grouping works very well. If I'm going to start knocking QBs for being "system only" players, then that list is a mile long in this league, and it starts right here in Baltimore too.
3. Wentz was actually very good from 2017 through 2019. At least 7.0 YPA every season, high TD ratios, very limited in terms of turnovers. 25-15 as a starter. Checked every box.

I'm fine with saying teams should show resiliency, but there's also one thing you're overlooking.... everybody gets fired along the way. Coaches, players, etc. Everybody. Let Wentz walk, and spend 4-5 years trying to draft or develop some guy who never pans out. You think those coaches or front office personnel are around after that? The only guy who stays around in those situations are Ownership, and they're not usually the people you want evaluating talent.

You're better off being the Eagles and overpaying a QB who was critical to you winning a SB, than being one of the like dozen or so NFL teams who have just been churning through bad QB after bad QB after bad QB, from the draft, for a decade or longer.
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QB wins is not a particularly useful stat... Lions organisation has been a garbage fire - Stafford is well known for winning games and being clutch - but he's been buried in an organisation so bad that star players would rather retire than continue to play for them

and sorry but "bad qbs in good systems dont make it to SBs" is bullshit

Nick Foles won a superbowl MVP and by all accounts is not a good QB, Goff made it to a superbowl, the year Payton Manning won the superbowl he was absolutely trash, jimmy garropolo doesnt look that great at QB (49ers seem to be actively looking to replace him a year after he made the superbowl)

people arent knocking goff for being a system QB, they're knocking him for being a bad qb elevated by a good system which puts a ceiling on their ability - they went all-in to get to that superbowl in terms of roster building with a scheme that teams were struggling to figure out

that's not repeatable it seems
 
rmcjacket23 said:
1. "leader of men" is a trait that 100% of coaches being considered will have. If they didn't have it, they wouldn't be getting interviewed. By definition, anybody who's had success as a HC elsewhere or being a coordinator of a successful unit has shown an ability to "lead men".
2. Putting together the right staff is a lot taller task than it seems, and quite frankly, if the staff you bring is critical to the hiring process, I wouldn't hire you.
3. Joe Judge got a job in NY because he ran a great unit for several years on a winning team and coached along the greatest coach ever. Pretty much anybody that coaches alongside Belichick for an extended period of time gets a HC gig. Pretty much all of them fail of course, which isn't good, but Wink doesn't have that pedigree to fall back on either.

I think Wink checks every box of the like Greg Roman, Dean Pees, Rex Ryan type of coaches. Works great with players, exceptionally good at the specific things they do. Never going to be the kind of guy who's going to succeed as a HC, and likely won't get many, if any, opportunities to do so, largely because he fits the mold of previous coaches who failed to do so.
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Well no shit to all of that. I really don't understand your arguments sometimes. Wink is absolutely a candidate. Maybe "likely" wasn't the right word but there's absolutely a chance he gets a job. He's had rave reviews for years.
 
rmcjacket23 said:
Rapoport has also written a piece like that for about 10 different "candidates" this offseason, and wrote the same thing about Wink 12 months ago, when he didn't get a gig and wasn't interviewed for nearly as many as people suspected either.

If that's his targeted staff, good luck. I'm not sure what would be appealing about bringing Marvin Lewis or Lovie Smith in. Focus should be on a strong OC, which is possible, but again, if I'm a team that's hiring a HC with a contingency of approving their OC, its probably not a good hire to begin with.
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but theres not a contingency - it's him assembling a staff to better be able to assure ownership of what the plan actually is...
i dont understand why that's a bad thing...
 
rossihunter2 said:
QB wins is not a particularly useful stat... Lions organisation has been a garbage fire - Stafford is well known for winning games and being clutch - but he's been buried in an organisation so bad that star players would rather retire than continue to play for them

and sorry but "bad qbs in good systems dont make it to SBs" is bullshit

Nick Foles won a superbowl MVP and by all accounts is not a good QB, Goff made it to a superbowl, the year Payton Manning won the superbowl he was absolutely trash, jimmy garropolo doesnt look that great at QB (49ers seem to be actively looking to replace him a year after he made the superbowl)

people arent knocking goff for being a system QB, they're knocking him for being a bad qb elevated by a good system which puts a ceiling on their ability - they went all-in to get to that superbowl in terms of roster building with a scheme that teams were struggling to figure out

that's not repeatable it seems
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argument is over! lol
 
Deebo813 said:
You never know tbh. With the right team and hiring the right coordinators, he can very well be successful.
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I think that's kind of my point though. "With the right coordinators" really shouldn't even be a thought in your mind when you're hiring somebody.

If he's great as a coach, those coordinators won't be on his staff very long anyway.
 
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