I would say that, pending some sort of surge in the late fall, it's going to be pretty difficult for States to justify capacity restrictions at outdoor sporting events come September.
You've already got multiple States allowing capacity seating at outdoor events, with no notable "surges" or issues to be found. At some point, even the most liberal of States are going to have to look at themselves and be like "do we really want to turn down all this economic revenue, when the science isn't really supporting it".