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2021 General Draft Thoughts
- Thread starter rossihunter2
- Start date
100% - i'd happily take him even higher than that tbh
to me the only thing he's missing really is height - occasionally see him get a bit flat-footed watching the backfield on some play-action stuff but otherwise i see a guy who if he was just 3 inches taller would be talked about as a bona fide 1st rounder
Edgar
Ravens Ring of Honor
I couldn't believe his IQ generally...awesome range. fits downhill great...great tackler. He's a chess piece and it wouldn't surprise me if we are targeting him. he's a legit free safety that can play nickel or SS
he's my top ranked safety and i have a high 2nd round grade on him - but would honestly have no issue if the ravens saw him as a 1st rounder - his size doesn't worry me so much because as you say he's a great tackler and a generally very physical player - he's good playing the ball and competing in contested situations and while he lacks length he does have explosive athleticism to elevate to make up for it
tons of range, great instincts - as you say highly intelligent too - was really fun watching him communicate pre-snap
he's the only safety i truly enjoyed watching so far this year (no offence @JoeyFlex5 - i like richie grant too but washington was more fun to me lol)
and he's a great piece to add to the back-end - simultaneously adds range to the back-end, flexibility in dime and nickel packages as well as some cover if tavon went down again
Edgar
Ravens Ring of Honor
This is perhaps neither here nor there but Tyrann Matthieau is only 1 inch taller and he weighs less. I don't see him getting out of round two.
JoeyFlex5
Hall of Famer
I like ardarius Washington A LOT, every bit as much as you, I watched his film for the first time way back during the regular season, and I called him a first round talent, I’ve always wondered why the media was so low on him, he’s clearly the more pro ready and frankly better, smarter, more explosive, quicker, and generally more talented safety out of TCU, moehrig is bigger and longer and still has impressive range, that’s it. I also think Washington could make an entire career as a leagues top nickel corner.
JoeyFlex5
Hall of Famer
Yeah I can not picture a scenario where the league gms don’t see what we all see lol, his play and size are almost identical to one of the most electric safeties in the past decade, and he’s clearly on a different kind of level mentally for a college safety, he’s got iq and instincts and likely film study habits like a nfl safety and his range and burst and change of direction and fluidity and flex and all that are pretty elite, that makes up for 5’9” and I think nfl gms know it
especially after honey badger managed to transform that chiefs defence when he was brought in as a free agent and they've been to 2 superbowls since and each time their defence has shown up in a way that was unexpected and a lot of that is down to mathieu
would be hard for the league to not recognise that
JoeyFlex5
Hall of Famer
Yeah he’s honestly probably my favorite safety in the league right now, between him and baker, who’s another clone for Washington. Matthieu honestly was the spark for that defense, that and 2 lucky hits on low cost corners
Edgar
Ravens Ring of Honor
Im always grateful to come on here with you and guys like @rossihunter2 to confirm that I am seeing what I am seeing. Sometimes you hear the din and it makes you doubt what you are seeing. I kept seeing his name in the 3rd/4th and when I finally watched I was pretty shocked.
If he falls to third
luckily I’d seen a TCU game or 2 this year on tv live so had some idea that he was a nice player - but yeah I only ended up watching him so early because moehrig was high on my list (made sense to watch both TCU guys back-to-back) and was surprised by where I saw him being ranked
Davesta
Ravens Ring of Honor
You mofo. You sold me! Take my heart.
https://pressboxonline.com/2021/03/...laying-for-ravens-would-be-a-dream-come-true/
https://pressboxonline.com/2021/03/...laying-for-ravens-would-be-a-dream-come-true/
somewhat related to the WR drafting discussion in the signings thread
this article on success-rate and drafting efficiency from 2020 is interesting...
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/nfl-drafting-efficiency-2010-2019
but this is the last paragraph:
What this all tells me is that drafting well is a lot of luck, mixed with some skill and an extra layer of a random "jackpot" on top (the one or two later-round picks each draft that become unexpected Hall of Famers). This would explain the data we see (including the outliers) pretty well. The Seahawks are probably pretty good at drafting, but also had some crazy luck in hitting three jackpots in a row (Wilson, Wagner, and Richard Sherman). What this should tell NFL teams is that you need to roll the dice as many times as you can (trading down for additional value whenever possible), get the best GM you can possibly find, and get the top coaches in the league to develop the talent you draft -- which is what we already see consistently good teams generally do.
basically - the draft is a lottery and the best GMs mine efficiency over time across multiple drafts rather than perpetually hitting home-runs - and part of that value seems to be from acquiring as much capital as possible
this article on success-rate and drafting efficiency from 2020 is interesting...
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/nfl-drafting-efficiency-2010-2019
but this is the last paragraph:
What this all tells me is that drafting well is a lot of luck, mixed with some skill and an extra layer of a random "jackpot" on top (the one or two later-round picks each draft that become unexpected Hall of Famers). This would explain the data we see (including the outliers) pretty well. The Seahawks are probably pretty good at drafting, but also had some crazy luck in hitting three jackpots in a row (Wilson, Wagner, and Richard Sherman). What this should tell NFL teams is that you need to roll the dice as many times as you can (trading down for additional value whenever possible), get the best GM you can possibly find, and get the top coaches in the league to develop the talent you draft -- which is what we already see consistently good teams generally do.
basically - the draft is a lottery and the best GMs mine efficiency over time across multiple drafts rather than perpetually hitting home-runs - and part of that value seems to be from acquiring as much capital as possible
LSURavenFan
Veteran
Here's kinda how I see the 1st round playing out. Although my thoughts will change 1000x between now and draft day.
1. Jags- Lawrence QB
2. Jets- Wilson QB
3. Dolphins- Pitts TE. I'd select Pitts before any of the WR, he's such a rare talent.
4. Falcons- Parsons LB. Every year there's a jaw-dropper in the top 10. This is it. ATL should look QB, but I'm not sure they will.
5. Bengals- Sewell OT. They will be really tempted to pick Chase if he's still available.
6. Eagles- Chase WR
7. Lions- Waddle WR
8. Panthers- Lance QB
9. Broncos- Fields QB
10. Cowboys- Surtain CB
11. Giants- Rousseau Edge. Another surprise, seems like a Gettleman player though.
12. 49ers- Farley CB
13. Chargers- Slater OT
14. Vikings- Vera-Tucker IOL/OT
15. Patriots- Smith WR
16. Cardinals- Horn CB
17. Raiders- Owusu-Koramoah
18. Dolphins- Humphrey C. This would be a shock too. Dolphins were in on Linsley and Andrews, they need an upgrade at C, they have extra picks and can afford to do this.
19. Washington- Darrisaw OT
20. Bears- Jones QB
21. Colts- Jenkins OT. I think they go with best tackle remaining.
22. Titans- Bateman WR
23. Jets- Phillips Edge. Think they go with either of Phillips/Ojulari/Paye.
24. Steelers- Mayfield OT
25. Jaguars- Marshall WR
26. Browns- Ojulari Edge
At 27th I think the Ravens would go with Kwity Paye, in this scenario. Should help with the pass rush. I also like Zaven Collins. Could be a trade-back year though.
1. Jags- Lawrence QB
2. Jets- Wilson QB
3. Dolphins- Pitts TE. I'd select Pitts before any of the WR, he's such a rare talent.
4. Falcons- Parsons LB. Every year there's a jaw-dropper in the top 10. This is it. ATL should look QB, but I'm not sure they will.
5. Bengals- Sewell OT. They will be really tempted to pick Chase if he's still available.
6. Eagles- Chase WR
7. Lions- Waddle WR
8. Panthers- Lance QB
9. Broncos- Fields QB
10. Cowboys- Surtain CB
11. Giants- Rousseau Edge. Another surprise, seems like a Gettleman player though.
12. 49ers- Farley CB
13. Chargers- Slater OT
14. Vikings- Vera-Tucker IOL/OT
15. Patriots- Smith WR
16. Cardinals- Horn CB
17. Raiders- Owusu-Koramoah
18. Dolphins- Humphrey C. This would be a shock too. Dolphins were in on Linsley and Andrews, they need an upgrade at C, they have extra picks and can afford to do this.
19. Washington- Darrisaw OT
20. Bears- Jones QB
21. Colts- Jenkins OT. I think they go with best tackle remaining.
22. Titans- Bateman WR
23. Jets- Phillips Edge. Think they go with either of Phillips/Ojulari/Paye.
24. Steelers- Mayfield OT
25. Jaguars- Marshall WR
26. Browns- Ojulari Edge
At 27th I think the Ravens would go with Kwity Paye, in this scenario. Should help with the pass rush. I also like Zaven Collins. Could be a trade-back year though.
nice predictions and well thought out
in this scenario the highest graded players on my board would be CB Greg Newsome and C Landon Dickerson (but injury issues mean he’s probably not actually ranked this high on the board)
so 100% would be a hardcore trade down situation
if not - other highly graded guys I’ve got at this sort of spot at other positions would be Kwity Paye or Zaven Collins like you mentioned or also OT Sam Cosmi, OG Wyatt Davis, WR Elijah Moore
but I’m 100% trying to trade out in this scenario because I think there’s tons of guys with similar value/talent to all the guys mentioned above which means that a few of them will still be around 10+ picks later
JoeyFlex5
Hall of Famer
While I’m not super high on Paye, I think you gotta take him there, you just lost most of your edge in FA, this is a weak looking edge class, we’re at the point where we need warm bodies first and foremost, with Paye you know you’re getting a competent one and you hope he develops his natural abilities into something special as a pass rusher
Since Paye is the subject, I just want it be known he will be the #1 defensive player on my board. Can't really elaborate except he's just freaky and sometimes impossible to block. He's barely figuring it out and OT already can't handle him.
it shows up more in the running game where he's already dominant and further ahead technically than where he is as a pass rusher - as you say he's a freaky athlete and has the tools to be a menace off the edge