Let's factor in some variables then. While Jensen did grade highly per PFF, offensive line play around the league was down as a whole. Yes, he was rated as #9 which per their grading scale is still AVERAGE. Add in some injuries around the league and play was down.
Jensen also made his fair share of mistakes upon reexamination of the tape. Whether this means penalties or blown assignments. Even the most desperate of teams will look at that as a red flag. Not to mention he would occasionally play past the whistle. That would eliminate him as a candidate for some teams. We also have to account for some of the best centers in football. Per playing. Oh, and most importantly Jensen is a one year wonder with some inconsistent play. Some teams will look at this and be VERY skeptical, which likely rules out some teams.
Also when examining the amount of centers around the league this year who suffered from injury.. It's astonishing really.
Mitch Morse(promising campaign last season. Play predictably went south when playing through said injury)
Ryan Kali(one of the game's best centers over the past decade. Play went south when playing through injury. Better player than Jensen)
Ryan Kelly(promising rookie campaign last season. Went down south when playing through injury. Better player than Jensen)
Weston Richburg(top center when healthy. Was injured for most of 2017 and the Giants suffered because of it. Btw. Also a free agent. Probably the top name on the market)
Travis Swanson(very good center when healthy. Suffered through injuries)
Assuming that teams only use PFF(which is absolutely asinine but this is a hypothetical), like with any analytic you have to provide some semblance of context. Factor in all the variables(level of competition, injuries around them, coaching, scheme related issues(in the case of several players that had down years this year. Mike Pouncey being a prime example imo) some GMs might come to the conclusion that Jensen's grade is inflated. Which I believe it is slightly due to poor line play around the league and injuries hurting some of the game's more promising players)
Let's look at the other centers in the league this past season salary wise then.
- Jason Kelce(first team all pro last season and several time pro bowler, better than Jensen, did not have an expensive contract at all)
- Alex Mack(valued at 8.3 million. Much better center than Jensen. Was allowed to hit the open market because the Browns are idiots. Still not over $10 million and everyone knows it)
- Brandon Linder(highest paid center in football. $11 million. Best player on a bad oline and better than Jensen could hope to be. Has better track record as well.
- Maurkice Pouncey($11 million again. Overrated, but still a very good plater. I'd say he's better than Jensen)
- Mike Pouncey($9 million. I'm rounding up but once again. Better track record than Jensen. Paid around what he should be paid. Jensen had a better year, but Miami's oline as a whole was terrible this past year)
- Ryan Kalil($8 million. Has had a much better career than Jensen has had. A bit on the older side and centers are valued more. But still is being paid reasonably)
- Rodney Hudson($7.5 million. Again, better player than Jensen. Better track record. Had a better season. Was a highly regarded player when he hit the market when the Raiders had more cap than EVERYONE)
- Max Unger(7.5 million. See above. The Saints oline changed when they added him and he's been worth giving up Jimmy Graham for. He's a big reason why that Saints line has been a Rock for Brees)
- Travis Frederick(5 million this season. He's the best center in the damn league. His contract only goes over the 10 mil a season mark.. 3 times roughly during the duration of his extension. I'd take him over Jensen in my sleep)
I don't think I need to go on. I'd take most, if not all of these guys over Jensen on their best day and most of them were paid at correct market value. I doubt that Jensen is nearly as highly regarded around the league. So when you factor in some aspects.
Inconsistent play from all of his years in the league
The fact that he's only been a starter for a single year
Occasional lapses in play because of inexperience.
He's not even the best option player wise on the market(when helathy Richburg has had better seasons)
And the fact that Jensen is not a fit in everyone's scheme
Oh. 23 teams in the NFL are set at center either because they drafted someone recently and they're going to wait for him to develop or they are stuck in a contract with him. Either way that SEVERELY narrows the market
That limits his market to 9 teams. He's not really a fit with Cincinatti, San Francisco, The Giants, Rams, Cardinals(who under McCoy run more of a zone scheme. He ran power last season but that was a miserable failure so he will probably switch back to zone where he was most successful. Not to mention Shipley, who played REALLY well for them the season before comes in at a fraction of the price and his bad season could be attributed to playing through injury... Again).
So.. His likely market is.
Us
Jets
Bills
Redskins
now the bills have some FAs they need to retain. We can rule them out of the running because of this. EJ Gaines is going to command a lot of money on the open market and I could see them getting back a few other key players. Not to mention with their plethora of draft picks they may choose to pursue their need for C in the draft, and are more likely to resort to using that to rebuild their oline.
The Redskins might pursue a different route in FAs. They have so many offensive needs that they'll likely pursue playmakers in the offseason rather than line(because Snyder is a moron).
That leaves us and the Jets. The Jets have a ton of cap room and run a mixed scheme. They're our main competitor. They can outbid us, and are displaying interest. But why would the Jets go after the man when they have a nice home town guy across the locker room in Richburg they could go after?
But given all of these variables, better players have gone for cheaper even in recent years. I don't see it happening. Jensen isn't a player worth resetting the market for. He's a good player, who overachieved this season and his PFF grade is better than it should be due to other injuries around the league and other players playing in unideal schemes. Other teams are going to understand this. Why would they. There's a TON of uncertainty around them.
Spotrac has him valued at around $8.9 million. They tend to be close to accurate.
http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/baltimore-ravens/ryan-jensen-12485/market-value/
That's more than doable because it's easier to manipulate cap than you would think.
I don't think he goes for $12 million. The Jets are stupid and desperate but I still have my doubts. He's not the type of guy worth resetting the market for because of all the uncertainty he brings to the table.
Of course. The Jets could just say "fuck it" and do this anyway to spite me.. But I don't think resigning Jensen is totally out of the picture and I'd pony up $10 mil if he wants it.
