The 2021 Offseason Thread

[rossihunter2]

Get ready. The NFL really needs to settle on what the cap is, though.

well they did just do the deal with disney so they must be pretty much done with the tv contracts etc. - we can't be far off getting the number
it's 12 days until the tampering window and teams will need at least some time to finalise their plans to get under the number

assuming the cap is 180m there're still 11 teams technically over and 3-4 more that basically wouldn't be able to fit in their draft picks or any tenders

i was sort of assuming there would have been more effort to get under by now and maybe more guys would be released early but i suppose the timing makes very little difference to the teams (only to the players trying to get signed before free agency is flooded with players)

they've surely got to release the number by next tuesday because that's the franchise tag deadline i think...

 

[rossihunter2]

With the above in mind, I honestly think I'd take the risk in cutting Brandon Williams. $7.5M in savings and I highly doubt he gets that on the open market. I'd take the risk, cut him, let him explore his market, and try to match or slightly exceed whatever the highest offer is. I don't think it'll be $7.5M and if he does get that, good for him.

i see your point but i just don't see it happening

 

[Simba]

well they did just do the deal with disney so they must be pretty much done with the tv contracts etc. - we can't be far off getting the number
it's 12 days until the tampering window and teams will need at least some time to finalise their plans to get under the number

assuming the cap is 180m there're still 11 teams technically over and 3-4 more that basically wouldn't be able to fit in their draft picks or any tenders

i was sort of assuming there would have been more effort to get under by now and maybe more guys would be released early but i suppose the timing makes very little difference to the teams (only to the players trying to get signed before free agency is flooded with players)

they've surely got to release the number by next tuesday because that's the franchise tag deadline i think...

That's where I'm at. Understood why they were waiting, but you also can't wait too much longer. Gotta tell these teams what it is so they can start planning.

But on the other side, this is going to be such a weird year. I think we could see a lot of cheap, 1 year deals for guys to chase a ring. If you aren't going to get your worth this year, might as well sell out for a ring and try again next year. Obviously these are more the middle tier guys than anything.

 

[Sandtown]

If Dez and Willie are gone, that leaves us with:

Hollywood
Boykin
Duv
Proche

With that group, we really need 1 big upgrade on the outside and 1 big upgrade in the slot. With regards to the outside, I just don't know who will he that guy in 2021. In terms of the slot, I think there's a chance Duv can he that guy. Maybe also Proche, but it seems less likely. Additionally there are a ton of slot guys in this draft.

So it always comes back to this. Who is going to be what Miles Boykin was supposed to be? Does he even have the chance to be a late bloomer?

Miles Boykins is only entering his third season in The NFl coming off a year where he was a first time starter but at the same time he also was barely tested on plays that required him to make catches outside of the numbers. That's something we all know Lamar Jackson has trouble with when it comes to outside the numbers throws on consistent basis. I'm not blaming the guy for The Ravens passing woes entirely either but we really don't know what we have due to Romans offense being so run focus and Jacksons regression as a passer last year. I do think The Ravens should sign a veteran receiver though but i'm not sure if they need a upgrade at outside and slot receiver. The Ravens for one don't even pass the ball enough to consider the need for both and i'm sure The Ravens will probably get back to using their tight ends in the passing game more often like in 2019.

If anything I think The Ravens should give their current receivers such as Boykins, Duvernay, and Proche a shot at the slot receiver role and possibly draft another outside receiver.

 

[rossihunter2]

That's where I'm at. Understood why they were waiting, but you also can't wait too much longer. Gotta tell these teams what it is so they can start planning.

But on the other side, this is going to be such a weird year. I think we could see a lot of cheap, 1 year deals for guys to chase a ring. If you aren't going to get your worth this year, might as well sell out for a ring and try again next year. Obviously these are more the middle tier guys than anything.

the problem with those 1 year deals is that unless you start putting void years in the deals they're all on the cap this year...

some good players are gonna end up on vet min deals (or close to vet min) - or else we're gonna see a lot of void year deals

 

[JoeyFlex5]

With the above in mind, I honestly think I'd take the risk in cutting Brandon Williams. $7.5M in savings and I highly doubt he gets that on the open market. I'd take the risk, cut him, let him explore his market, and try to match or slightly exceed whatever the highest offer is. I don't think it'll be $7.5M and if he does get that, good for him.

i dont think we have the depth for that. jelly started out solid but by the end of the year i feel he was pretty trash, derek wolfe is a stud but i wouldnt be shocked to see a mark ingram like decline there due to age and injury history, same with campbell whos not really a DT anyway, then theres broderick washington whos basically a 5tech, then theres madubuike who could alter gameplans at 3tech and we would be assholes to move him to nose. if wolfe wasnt such a big question mark id roll the dice, i just dont like the front seven at all right now and williams has proven to be a difference maker time and time again.

if we traded orlando brown for draft volume(say a 1+3 or like 2+2) or if we traded back, and we messed around and found ourselves with a christian barmore or daviyon nixon or marvin wilson in the second, then hell yes you cut him and use it for extending players if theres no guys remaining on the market come draft time

 

[Simba]

the problem with those 1 year deals is that unless you start putting void years in the deals they're all on the cap this year...

some good players are gonna end up on vet min deals (or close to vet min) - or else we're gonna see a lot of void year deals

I know guys are usually about the money, but I could see some minimum deals or something similar for lots of guys. I mean, if I'm a vet who would typically get like $8M on the open market, my value might be $4M this year just to throw something out there. If my choices are a rebuilding team for $4M or a competing team for $2M, I'm gonna take my chances for the ring and try again next year. Not saying all guys will do that but I do absolutely believe there will be cases where a vet takes much less than he probably should.

 

[Simba]

i dont think we have the depth for that. jelly started out solid but by the end of the year i feel he was pretty trash, derek wolfe is a stud but i wouldnt be shocked to see a mark ingram like decline there due to age and injury history, same with campbell whos not really a DT anyway, then theres broderick washington whos basically a 5tech, then theres madubuike who could alter gameplans at 3tech and we would be assholes to move him to nose. if wolfe wasnt such a big question mark id roll the dice, i just dont like the front seven at all right now and williams has proven to be a difference maker time and time again.

if we traded orlando brown for draft volume(say a 1+3 or like 2+2) or if we traded back, and we messed around and found ourselves with a christian barmore or daviyon nixon or marvin wilson in the second, then hell yes you cut him and use it for extending players if theres no guys remaining on the market come draft time

It's definitely a risk, but if I need the money, I'm taking my chances. Just don't see any possible way he gets $7.5M on the open market. Ideally you could approach him about a pay cut or work out a small extension, but I know that's always a lot easier said than done. Normally I'd be against this idea entirely but I could also see these scenarios playing out around the league quite a bit this year. Go out, see that the market isn't really there, and come back at a fair price.

 

[rmcjacket23]

With the above in mind, I honestly think I'd take the risk in cutting Brandon Williams. $7.5M in savings and I highly doubt he gets that on the open market. I'd take the risk, cut him, let him explore his market, and try to match or slightly exceed whatever the highest offer is. I don't think it'll be $7.5M and if he does get that, good for him.

If we did this like post-draft, I could maybe understand it. I think adding some youth and depth on the Dline has to be a priority for us this offseason.

That being said...there's no way I'm doing this until I have to. Like it or not... this team values run defense, and our run defense without BWill hasn't proven to be that effective. If they like re-sign Wolfe and then add a big man or two in the draft, then I could see cutting him loose in May or June if somehow another player we like becomes available via trade or FA after the draft.

I suppose you "could" cut him now, let him test the market, and re-sign him for a couple million cheaper if he doesn't get much more in the market, but again, I think that's a huge gamble.

Plus, as I tell everybody this year, smart teams don't create cap space until they need cap space. Like there's no value in cutting Williams now, or even a week from now. If you're about ready to sign somebody in FA to a monstrous deal, and you need space, then you can think about cutting him. But I feel like fans just look at cap space and be like "yeah, lets create as much space as possible and then we'll fill it later". Really bad way of doing things in my opinion. That's a great way to end up with a bunch of cap space and nobody to use it on, because just having cap space is merely one in a list of steps that involves getting a player to sign here.

Like I'll admit I'm one of the guys saying "we can't afford to spend big in FA", because we really can't. But in the broad context, we're in the top 12 in the league in cap space available right now (roughly). I mean there's probably 8 teams or so that can pretty much sign anybody they desire because they have so much space, but there's about a dozen teams that either have to make cuts/restructures just to get under the cap, or have essentially no cap space whatsoever.

All this can dramatically change in a matter of weeks, granted. Some teams are $10M over the cap but have like a series of really easy, really obvious cuts that will not only create space but also not really hurt their team that much. And the reason why the Ravens outlook isn't spectacular is because we DON'T really have that option. If we had like 3 aging, overpaid, easy cuts to make that would free up like $15-20M, I'd be totally giddy about this offseason. But we don't. Most of our roster is paid pretty well compared to production and we want to keep it that way.

 

[Simba]

If we did this like post-draft, I could maybe understand it. I think adding some youth and depth on the Dline has to be a priority for us this offseason.

That being said...there's no way I'm doing this until I have to. Like it or not... this team values run defense, and our run defense without BWill hasn't proven to be that effective. If they like re-sign Wolfe and then add a big man or two in the draft, then I could see cutting him loose in May or June if somehow another player we like becomes available via trade or FA after the draft.

I suppose you "could" cut him now, let him test the market, and re-sign him for a couple million cheaper if he doesn't get much more in the market, but again, I think that's a huge gamble.

The last line is what I'm going for in this scenario. Cut him at the beginning of FA, let him see that a market isn't really there, and then see if you can find some fair value for him to come back. Risky? Absolutely, but I think they're going to end up needing the money and Williams is the only one that makes sense from that perspective.

 

[rmcjacket23]

The last line is what I'm going for in this scenario. Cut him at the beginning of FA, let him see that a market isn't really there, and then see if you can find some fair value for him to come back. Risky? Absolutely, but I think they're going to end up needing the money and Williams is the only one that makes sense from that perspective.

So then why wouldn't you just wait until you actually need the money to do it?
There's no reward for the risk. Its a risk with no upside.

If I want to sign Allen Robinson on March 18th, why am I cutting Brandon Williams on March 3rd? Why wouldn't I just cut Williams on March 18th?

There's really only two reasons to be cutting a player today:
1. You need the cap space right now to sign somebody. That's not an issue for the Ravens right now.
2. You're giving them a "veteran courtesy" by cutting them early, because you have precisely zero plans for them to be on the roster this season.
Basically the JJ Watt move, or like we did with somebody like Eric Weddle in the past. We just did it with Morgan Cox this offseason. We already decided to get younger and cheaper at the position no matter what, and there's no reason to wait any longer.

Williams doesn't fall into that category. The most desirable outcome for the Ravens is that Williams plays for us in 2021, probably at a cheaper rate. But you don't need to make that determination until you need the cap space for somebody else. If that never materializes (which it may not), Williams may very well be back as is.

 

[rmcjacket23]

well they did just do the deal with disney so they must be pretty much done with the tv contracts etc. - we can't be far off getting the number
it's 12 days until the tampering window and teams will need at least some time to finalise their plans to get under the number

assuming the cap is 180m there're still 11 teams technically over and 3-4 more that basically wouldn't be able to fit in their draft picks or any tenders

i was sort of assuming there would have been more effort to get under by now and maybe more guys would be released early but i suppose the timing makes very little difference to the teams (only to the players trying to get signed before free agency is flooded with players)

they've surely got to release the number by next tuesday because that's the franchise tag deadline i think...

There's still two weeks before teams need to be under the cap, and we know, we don't officially know what the cap is yet. I think most teams pretty well know who they're going to cut... it just doesn't make a lot of sense for most teams to do anything yet.

The only thing I'm surprised by is the lack of (or at least public acknowledgment of lack of) contract restructures. Like teams like Philly, New Orleans, etc. have to be making a LOT of moves to create cap space beyond cutting players. Some of these teams would have to cut like dozens of players to create cap space, so many of them will use restructures to do it.

I supposed they're not as "sexy" in the media so we may not hear about a lot of them, but I would expect a lot of teams will be reporting significant contract extensions/restructures in the next couple weeks in an effort to get under the cap.

 

[Simba]

So then why wouldn't you just wait until you actually need the money to do it?
There's no reward for the risk. Its a risk with no upside.

If I want to sign Allen Robinson on March 18th, why am I cutting Brandon Williams on March 3rd? Why wouldn't I just cut Williams on March 18th?

There's really only two reasons to be cutting a player today:
1. You need the cap space right now to sign somebody. That's not an issue for the Ravens right now.
2. You're giving them a "veteran courtesy" by cutting them early, because you have precisely zero plans for them to be on the roster this season.
Basically the JJ Watt move, or like we did with somebody like Eric Weddle in the past. We just did it with Morgan Cox this offseason. We already decided to get younger and cheaper at the position no matter what, and there's no reason to wait any longer.

Williams doesn't fall into that category. The most desirable outcome for the Ravens is that Williams plays for us in 2021, probably at a cheaper rate. But you don't need to make that determination until you need the cap space for somebody else. If that never materializes (which it may not), Williams may very well be back as is.

I said at the beginning of FA

 

[rossihunter2]

There's still two weeks before teams need to be under the cap, and we know, we don't officially know what the cap is yet. I think most teams pretty well know who they're going to cut... it just doesn't make a lot of sense for most teams to do anything yet.

The only thing I'm surprised by is the lack of (or at least public acknowledgment of lack of) contract restructures. Like teams like Philly, New Orleans, etc. have to be making a LOT of moves to create cap space beyond cutting players. Some of these teams would have to cut like dozens of players to create cap space, so many of them will use restructures to do it.

I supposed they're not as "sexy" in the media so we may not hear about a lot of them, but I would expect a lot of teams will be reporting significant contract extensions/restructures in the next couple weeks in an effort to get under the cap.

saw a reporter just say that he spoke to a coach who said that it's most likely going to be between 180-183 from what they'd heard

but teams will need to know for sure very soon because franchise tag deadline is coming up...

 

[rmcjacket23]

I said at the beginning of FA

OK, but doesn't matter.

Ravens create space when they need space, as they should. They don't create space because maybe, possibly, hopefully they'll sign somebody.

 

[rmcjacket23]

saw a reporter just say that he spoke to a coach who said that it's most likely going to be between 180-183 from what they'd heard

but teams will need to know for sure very soon because franchise tag deadline is coming up...

I have no doubt. I'm sure most teams, like Eric said, have better info than the public/media does, and also operate with a "floor" in mind, and treat anything in excess as a surplus to help them make decisions.

But again, that just points to why so many teams have done such little cap reduction or roster cuts to this point. In pretty much every year, most teams only have maybe like 3-4 players, at most, who they know for sure they won't want back, via a combination of factors. They'll frequently cut them early, mostly out of courtesy, because there's nothing that's going to change their minds.

Many teams spend weeks approaching players about restructures or even paycuts. I would bet you will see a larger than usual listing of players voluntarily taking paycuts to stay on teams because they'll fear the FA market.

Heck, I wouldn't rule that out for BWill either. If the Ravens announced he was taking a $2M paycut, it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest, especially if there's a threat of a release (which there obviously is) and his agent realizes how bad the market could be.

Sometimes you actually have to cut the player or let them test the market to figure that out (hi, Jimmy Smith), but sometimes the player and his agent realize that the market is likely to be unkind to them, and they like where they're at.

 

[Willbacker]

i dont think we have the depth for that. jelly started out solid but by the end of the year i feel he was pretty trash, derek wolfe is a stud but i wouldnt be shocked to see a mark ingram like decline there due to age and injury history, same with campbell whos not really a DT anyway, then theres broderick washington whos basically a 5tech, then theres madubuike who could alter gameplans at 3tech and we would be assholes to move him to nose. if wolfe wasnt such a big question mark id roll the dice, i just dont like the front seven at all right now and williams has proven to be a difference maker time and time again.

if we traded orlando brown for draft volume(say a 1+3 or like 2+2) or if we traded back, and we messed around and found ourselves with a christian barmore or daviyon nixon or marvin wilson in the second, then hell yes you cut him and use it for extending players if theres no guys remaining on the market come draft time

Cutting a player post draft is a little dirty since most teams are gonna be set which would cause his value to plummet and I don't believe players look on that too kindly and could remember that in the future.

 

[Willbacker]

I have no doubt. I'm sure most teams, like Eric said, have better info than the public/media does, and also operate with a "floor" in mind, and treat anything in excess as a surplus to help them make decisions.

But again, that just points to why so many teams have done such little cap reduction or roster cuts to this point. In pretty much every year, most teams only have maybe like 3-4 players, at most, who they know for sure they won't want back, via a combination of factors. They'll frequently cut them early, mostly out of courtesy, because there's nothing that's going to change their minds.

Many teams spend weeks approaching players about restructures or even paycuts. I would bet you will see a larger than usual listing of players voluntarily taking paycuts to stay on teams because they'll fear the FA market.

Heck, I wouldn't rule that out for BWill either. If the Ravens announced he was taking a $2M paycut, it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest, especially if there's a threat of a release (which there obviously is) and his agent realizes how bad the market could be.

Sometimes you actually have to cut the player or let them test the market to figure that out (hi, Jimmy Smith), but sometimes the player and his agent realize that the market is likely to be unkind to them, and they like where they're at.

I notice he has a roster bonus of 3 million. When does that get paid?

 

[Simba]

OK, but doesn't matter.

Ravens create space when they need space, as they should. They don't create space because maybe, possibly, hopefully they'll sign somebody.

It's not only that, though. Is Williams value $7.5M at this point? If it's not, they'll try to find a way to lessen that.

 

[rmcjacket23]

I notice he has a roster bonus of 3 million. When does that get paid?

Who? Williams? No roster bonus due. He's only due a $7.5M base salary. He's got $6.9M in bonus prorations from prior years, which is the dead money.