2022 General Draft Thoughts

[rossihunter2]

I really think we have a good shot to make 2 trades that give us the opportunity to make 2 picks in the first round.

Given that we have 1 pick in both round 1 and 2, if we can make 2 picks in top 32 as opposed to top 64, I believe we'll get the best return out of that.

The philosophy being you've got a lot of third and 4th rounders. Go get 2 sure fire guys and then just go to town picking later round guys with your many picks.

if the top guys are gone at 14, the best thing we can do is trade down and probably seeing if we can trade down a pretty long way - i think once the first drop-off happens the level of guys is pretty even for a while

ive got some grade differences in this group, don't get me wrong, but right now i dont see massive difference between the 19th player and the 35th player in the draft - so moving back and adding extra picks, especially if we can net an extra 2nd (or even an extra 1st) is likely going to be the best outcome

if we can pick 3 times in the top 50 but also still pick 8-10 times in the top 150 that would be a great outcome

 

[Deebo813]

BEEN TELLIN YALL KARLAFTIS IS THAT MF!!!

Ebiketie and Drake Jackson having elite win rates is no surprise either. Those guys are 2 of the most elite slept on prospects in the class

Thats why i dnt watch pass rushers lol.. boye, jackson and ebiketie all look better than jermaine johnson to me lol.. i dnt see it in johnson..

 

[rossihunter2]

 

[UPennChem]

if the top guys are gone at 14, the best thing we can do is trade down and probably seeing if we can trade down a pretty long way - i think once the first drop-off happens the level of guys is pretty even for a while

ive got some grade differences in this group, don't get me wrong, but right now i dont see massive difference between the 19th player and the 35th player in the draft - so moving back and adding extra picks, especially if we can net an extra 2nd (or even an extra 1st) is likely going to be the best outcome

if we can pick 3 times in the top 50 but also still pick 8-10 times in the top 150 that would be a great outcome

I definitely like that idea

 

[All_black_everything]

if the top guys are gone at 14, the best thing we can do is trade down and probably seeing if we can trade down a pretty long way - i think once the first drop-off happens the level of guys is pretty even for a while

ive got some grade differences in this group, don't get me wrong, but right now i dont see massive difference between the 19th player and the 35th player in the draft - so moving back and adding extra picks, especially if we can net an extra 2nd (or even an extra 1st) is likely going to be the best outcome

if we can pick 3 times in the top 50 but also still pick 8-10 times in the top 150 that would be a great outcome

So we’ve all heard of the guys in your top ten or tier 1 guys that you’re hoping fall to 14.

I like the idea your proposed of trading back and acquiring more picks if those guys are gone and it sounds like your 19th-35th all grade similarly.

However, are those 11-18 guys, or tier 2 guys, worth missing out on? Would you mind sharing who you have in this tier?

I’m assuming Davis, Booth, a couple WRs, maybe Mcduffie?

 

[rossihunter2]

So we’ve all heard of the guys in your top ten or tier 1 guys that you’re hoping fall to 14.

I like the idea your proposed of trading back and acquiring more picks if those guys are gone and it sounds like your 19th-35th all grade similarly.

However, are those 11-18 guys, or tier 2 guys, worth missing out on? Would you mind sharing who you have in this tier?

I’m assuming Davis, Booth, a couple WRs, maybe Mcduffie?

drake london's in my top tier also so there's 11 guys in that tier for me

then that next tier only has these guys in it (in no particular order)

Jordan Davis
Andrew Booth
Trent McDuffie
Devin Lloyd
Daxton Hill
Chris Olave
Jameson Williams

and ultimately i would be fine with any of those guys at 14 but would rather risk losing them and dropping down (with maybe the hope that one of them makes it to our pick after we trade back) than sticking and picking

especially when i feel like the next 2-3 tiers behind them is full of EDGE guys with high ceilings
if the choice is trent mcduffie vs trading down to the 20s or even later and maybe still getting one of those guys but at worse still being able to take one of those high ceiling EDGE guys (like we did with Oweh) + an extra mid-to-late 2nd rounder or, depending on how far back we go, even an extra 1

the best thing we can hope for in terms of trade value for our pick is probably a run at WR and hoping GB or KC get antsy with their boatloads of picks and come up to get one of the top guys

 

[JoeyFlex5]

You can’t give me a single good reason to have the draft next Thursday instead of tomorrow. Always feels like it’s a week late ever since they pushed it back

 

[rossihunter2]

I definitely like that idea

im getting very comfortable with the idea of trading back to the end of round 1 if we can and taking one of those high ceiling edge guys

ive got 10 EDGE guys i'd be fine with us taking in the 1st round (in grades terms... in reality it's 9 because Ojabo's there too)
and to put in perspective how high i am on some of these guys... Karlaftis might be the 10th guy lol

my edge rankings are really fluid because ive got 6 guys with very very similar grades to each other
but right now they look like this (these are all guys ive got in the top 32 on my board right now - not necessarily 1st round grades but they're in the top 32 prospects in the class and at worst they have an "early 2nd" grade from me)

1) KT
2) Hutchinson
3) Travon
4) JJ
...
Pretty sizeable gap
...
5) ***Ojabo*** (he'd probably drop to 11th in the sequence taking the injury into account but in grades terms this is where he'd be)
6) Ebiketie
...
7) Paschal
8) Drake Jackson
9) Boye Mafe
10) Karlaftis

 

[rossihunter2]

You can’t give me a single good reason to have the draft next Thursday instead of tomorrow. Always feels like it’s a week late ever since they pushed it back

i honestly need that time lol - ive still got so many guys to watch

 

[Deebo813]

Just saw that jermain johnson vid on youtube against nc state.. he look kinda nice frfr lol

 

[JoeyFlex5]

i honestly need that time lol - ive still got so many guys to watch

I don’t give a fuck about watching guys anymore lol I just wanna know wtf happens. I’ve been mocked and film-studied out for weeks now

 

[JoeyFlex5]

Just saw that jermain johnson vid on youtube against nc state.. he look kinda nice frfr lol

He trash

 

[rossihunter2]

slight proviso that i think this includes unblocked pressures and obviously doesnt take into account double-team rates or anything like that but some interesting numbers there...

 

[RaineV1]

I really would love grabbing Kingsley in this draft. I think he's the perfect one to pair with Oweh.

 

[cdp]

slight proviso that i think this includes unblocked pressures and obviously doesnt take into account double-team rates or anything like that but some interesting numbers there...

Very interesting numbers. I'll try to add some context:
NFL average time to throw is between 2.2 (Roethlisberger) and 2.6 (Heinicke). Most *elite* QBs are right at 2.4s.
Like you said these are raw #s and definitely need to be adjusted, but it makes me rethink Walker and Johnson. They both struggle to get "early" (only 26% resp. 16%) pressures.

 

[All_black_everything]

Very interesting numbers. I'll try to add some context:
NFL average time to throw is between 2.2 (Roethlisberger) and 2.6 (Heinicke). Most *elite* QBs are right at 2.4s.
Like you said these are raw #s and definitely need to be adjusted, but it makes me rethink Walker and Johnson. They both struggle to get "early" (only 26% resp. 16%) pressures.

Exactly my thoughts. Conversely, Ebiketie winning early 54% of the time is interesting. It’d be nice to gather some context on his numbers.

 

[JO_75]

I don’t give a fuck about watching guys anymore lol I just wanna know wtf happens. I’ve been mocked and film-studied out for weeks now

Every time I try to do a mock, someone ends up trading a first round pick and I have to start over lol. I feel you though, I'm just ready for the Draft to happen.

 

[rossihunter2]

Very interesting numbers. I'll try to add some context:
NFL average time to throw is between 2.2 (Roethlisberger) and 2.6 (Heinicke). Most *elite* QBs are right at 2.4s.
Like you said these are raw #s and definitely need to be adjusted, but it makes me rethink Walker and Johnson. They both struggle to get "early" (only 26% resp. 16%) pressures.

walker's a projection based on traits and tools and flashes - the reason his time to sack is so low is most likely almost entirely a product of the scheme he was in because most of the time he was making space for other defenders (mostly the LBs)

they built an impressive team defence in georgia but i wouldnt say it was the best for letting some of these guys show off their traits as pass rushers (same issues with Jordan Davis and even Devonte Wyatt too)

Jermaine Johnson is probably the big takeaway there for me - and it kind of makes sense too... senior bowl did a lot for him in terms of the progress he'd made even between the end of the season and the all-star games - but definitely he's the one that i would look at and maybe go back to the eval to have another look just to check im still comfortable with my thoughts (which i think i aim with him)

the Ebiketie, Mafe and Hutchinson numbers (and Bonitto to an extent too) numbers are eye-opening in a positive way (if your eyes werent already opened to them)

 

[rossihunter2]

Exactly my thoughts. Conversely, Ebiketie winning early 54% of the time is interesting. It’d be nice to gather some context on his numbers.

the ebiketie number is especially notable because of this context... he's coached by penn state to be slow off the ball (much like oweh was last year) which makes the speed of his sacks there even more impressive

 

[UPennChem]

im getting very comfortable with the idea of trading back to the end of round 1 if we can and taking one of those high ceiling edge guys

ive got 10 EDGE guys i'd be fine with us taking in the 1st round (in grades terms... in reality it's 9 because Ojabo's there too)
and to put in perspective how high i am on some of these guys... Karlaftis might be the 10th guy lol

my edge rankings are really fluid because ive got 6 guys with very very similar grades to each other
but right now they look like this (these are all guys ive got in the top 32 on my board right now - not necessarily 1st round grades but they're in the top 32 prospects in the class and at worst they have an "early 2nd" grade from me)

1) KT
2) Hutchinson
3) Travon
4) JJ
...
Pretty sizeable gap
...
5) ***Ojabo*** (he'd probably drop to 11th in the sequence taking the injury into account but in grades terms this is where he'd be)
6) Ebiketie
...
7) Paschal
8) Drake Jackson
9) Boye Mafe
10) Karlaftis

I'd REALLY like a corner in RD1 because I know there's gonna be an edge RD2. It's just so crazy though. I wonder if when all is said and done if someone like Karlaftis or Ebiketie actually ends up being the best pro