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Lamar Jackson

Some team is going to give Lamar a fully guaranteed contract, whether that's the Ravens or whatever team he gets traded to, because teams are desperate for good QBs. It's going to happen. After that, Watson's contract stops being an abberation and becomes a precedent.

If Burrows, Herbert and Hurts are smart, they will wait until the Lamar situation plays out, because they'll then get 100% guaranteed deals too. (Though maybe one will play the good soldier role and go for something team friendly).

Ultimately, the Ravens will be left looking stupid as the team that gave up on a star QB just because he wanted market value guarantees. (As it's about to become.)
 
QtR Nevermore said:
Some team is going to give Lamar a fully guaranteed contract, whether that's the Ravens or whatever team he gets traded to, because teams are desperate for good QBs. It's going to happen. After that, Watson's contract stops being an abberation and becomes a precedent.

If Burrows, Herbert and Hurts are smart, they will wait until the Lamar situation plays out, because they'll then get 100% guaranteed deals too. (Though maybe one will play the good soldier role and go for something team friendly).

Ultimately, the Ravens will be left looking stupid as the team that gave up on a star QB just because he wanted market value guarantees. (As it's about to become.)
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No, the Falcons will be left looking stupid because now every QB is getting fully gtd contracts
 
UPennChem said:
At bare minimum they have to tag him any day now right? Are they even allowed to negotiate if he's not tagged?
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They'll wait to tag likely closer to deadline. Teams can extend players from their own teams during this period. Just can't negotiate with other teams players who are pending UFAs.
 
JoeyFlex5 said:
I’m just wondering, what is it about fully guaranteed deals that fans don’t want?
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The length and certainty of it. 3-4 years fully gtd I'm fine with. I'm not committing to anybody for 5-6 years in this sport. Too much injury risk, too much declining production risk.

Especially with a guy like Lamar. I'm not sure what anybody has seen to make you think he's going to be a high level player at like 34-35. I think his decline will come quicker than other QBs.

Plus, I don't think other teams are going to give the 5-6 year fully gtd deals either, so if I'm an Owner, why am I competing with myself in that regard? Why would I take risk I don't have to take, if I don't think anybody else is going to take the risk either?
 
rmcjacket23 said:
The length and certainty of it. 3-4 years fully gtd I'm fine with. I'm not committing to anybody for 5-6 years in this sport. Too much injury risk, too much declining production risk.

Especially with a guy like Lamar. I'm not sure what anybody has seen to make you think he's going to be a high level player at like 34-35. I think his decline will come quicker than other QBs.

Plus, I don't think other teams are going to give the 5-6 year fully gtd deals either, so if I'm an Owner, why am I competing with myself in that regard? Why would I take risk I don't have to take, if I don't think anybody else is going to take the risk either?
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I would give him 1 year fully gtd aka "the tag"
 
rmcjacket23 said:
The length and certainty of it. 3-4 years fully gtd I'm fine with. I'm not committing to anybody for 5-6 years in this sport. Too much injury risk, too much declining production risk.

Especially with a guy like Lamar. I'm not sure what anybody has seen to make you think he's going to be a high level player at like 34-35. I think his decline will come quicker than other QBs.

Plus, I don't think other teams are going to give the 5-6 year fully gtd deals either, so if I'm an Owner, why am I competing with myself in that regard? Why would I take risk I don't have to take, if I don't think anybody else is going to take the risk either?
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That one year of guarantees between 4 and 5 would really be a deal breaker for you? A year that would be below market rate by that point too? (I actually think the longer deals would be more team friendly.)

Lamar is 26. He won't be 34-35 in 6 years unless he really does everything faster than normal people, including aging.

I just don't see how Lamar doesn't get a fully guaranteed contract. He won't sign the tag necessary for a trade unless that's what's being offered, so it's going to happen. Then all the other top QBs will ask for the same and the Ravens will be left with Tyler Huntley, wishing they'd paid up.
 
QtR Nevermore said:
That one year of guarantees between 4 and 5 would really be a deal breaker for you? A year that would be below market rate by that point too? (I actually think the longer deals would be more team friendly.)

Lamar is 26. He won't be 34-35 in 6 years unless he really does everything faster than normal people, including aging.

I just don't see how Lamar doesn't get a fully guaranteed contract. He won't sign the tag necessary for a trade unless that's what's being offered, so it's going to happen. Then all the other top QBs will ask for the same and the Ravens will be left with Tyler Huntley, wishing they'd paid up.
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Lamar gonna be traded then .
 
QtR Nevermore said:
That one year of guarantees between 4 and 5 would really be a deal breaker for you? A year that would be below market rate by that point too? (I actually think the longer deals would be more team friendly.)

Lamar is 26. He won't be 34-35 in 6 years unless he really does everything faster than normal people, including aging.

I just don't see how Lamar doesn't get a fully guaranteed contract. He won't sign the tag necessary for a trade unless that's what's being offered, so it's going to happen. Then all the other top QBs will ask for the same and the Ravens will be left with Tyler Huntley, wishing they'd paid up.
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Pretty much. I think fans are being a little too cavalier thinking that one year is just a "small thing" (especially at that price point). One year is the difference between whether you turn to the draft sooner or not. If the Ravens had drafted Flacco's replacement one year sooner, Patrick Mahomes might be the QB of this team. That's what one year looks like.

If he's not performing well, why would it be below market value? The only way it can be below market value is if his trajectory of performance increases, rather than stays flat or decreases. Is that an assumption anybody should be making?

34-35 is the example, because that's when you see the "cliff" for a lot of QBs. His decline could be sooner, given that by the time he's 30, he'll be largely dependent on beating teams almost exclusively with his arm, since he won't be out sprinting guys 7-8 years younger than him in the open field.

At this rate, my guess is at least one other QB (Hurts) and possibly others may get extended before Lamar does, and I don't anticipate any of them getting a fully gtd deal beyond 3-4 years. So at that point, I don't see paths where Lamar does get one. He may refuse to sign the tag to force his hand in FA next year, but it'll take quite the performance this year to get to the fully gtd level, when others in similar or better spots don't get it.

And of course, said performance this year will be hamstrung by the fact that he'll be taking such a large portion of the cap (thereby decreasing the $ available to upgrade playmakers around him), the FO will have little to no incentive to invest in supporting cast for him long term, given that they don't know if he'll be here next year, AND, he'll almost certainly not be in the facility for the bulk of the offseason, which involves a new OC and possibly new receivers to throw to.
 
Thezone27 said:
I'm just joking. I would hate to tag him.
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I’m just saying, if we do that then we have basically no more cards to play after this season. I’m not sure if we can tag him again for the purpose of trading him a year from now because of how high his cap hit would jump once he signs
 
rmcjacket23 said:
At this rate, my guess is at least one other QB (Hurts) and possibly others may get extended before Lamar does, and I don't anticipate any of them getting a fully gtd deal beyond 3-4 years. So at that point, I don't see paths where Lamar does get one.
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That's what the Ravens are betting on, but Lamar is much closer to Free Agency than any of those guys, so they can afford to be patient. I would expect that the NFLPA and the players' own agents are advising Hurts, Burrow and Herbert to let the Lamar situation play out before signing anything, because its only going to help them.

Draft night is probably the deadline for the Ravens and Lamar - he'll probably get a fully guaranteed deal (or close to it) from some team around that time. Then the other QBs can all line up for their own versions. By waiting, the other QBs won't even need to risk playing next season without a long term deal, because it'll likely all be wrapped up by then.

I think the Ravens are wishing and hoping another QB will help them out by signing a team-friendly deal but I don't think it's going to happen.
 
QtR Nevermore said:
That one year of guarantees between 4 and 5 would really be a deal breaker for you? A year that would be below market rate by that point too? (I actually think the longer deals would be more team friendly.)

Lamar is 26. He won't be 34-35 in 6 years unless he really does everything faster than normal people, including aging.

I just don't see how Lamar doesn't get a fully guaranteed contract. He won't sign the tag necessary for a trade unless that's what's being offered, so it's going to happen. Then all the other top QBs will ask for the same and the Ravens will be left with Tyler Huntley, wishing they'd paid up.
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https://overthecap.com/calculator/cleveland-browns

You want to slit our throats? Look at the cap situation of the Browns. No outs even in the final year 2026. Then look at the Chiefs,Bills and Broncos. All have outs. The proof is in the pudding. Just look. Bisciotti and no other owner will do this.
 
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