Speaking on the above video from Rap, the one thing that isn't adding up for me is this sense that the Ravens are willing to match nearly any offer that comes his way. Lamar signing an offer sheet almost assumes to me that he got close to his ask on the guarantees. Just feels weird to me that they'd be willing to match a deal instead of just giving it to him in the first place. I definitely understand the principle of resetting the market and things like that, but just seems like we're throwing a lot of risk out there IF we plan to match a mega deal anyways.
Why is it risky though?
Its just letting the market decide his value. If he can get a better deal, come bring it to us. If not, why are we negotiating against ourselves?
I think what's pretty clear from all of this is that NFL GM's have a much stronger understanding of what the market for players is compared to how players view things.
I think there's two things that are super strong possibilities:
1. The Ravens offer is, quite literally, the best offer Lamar is going to get in the next call it 6 months. I think any better offers he could would be after the 2023 season, and is predicated on what he does during the 2023 season.
2. The Ravens have a super strong sense of how other teams view Lamar, and what they're willing to pay. And they think the "range" of what that offer would be is well within the range of what the Ravens are willing to do. So they're comfortable letting somebody else set the price, because they're in the same range.
I think the only risk is an offer sheet that, while in totality, is something they'll live with, but maybe is of a potential "poison pill" deal that involves a large year 1 cap hit. Which makes perfect sense given our cap/FA strategy thus far.
Nothing the Ravens have done is indicative of a franchise that a) thinks they're trading Lamar anytime soon or has formulated an offseason strategy around losing Lamar or b) shows that they're concerned, in any way, that Lamar is going to get a Watson-like offer.
If they really thought they couldn't compete on price, they'd have traded him already. They'd have wanted it done and over with before FA, so that they could go on a spending spree.