The Random Thought Thread

[SepticeyePoe]

@RavensMania, gonna need Lost's reaction to the Dodgers

 

[JO_75]

Dodgers finally win but Justin Turner left in the middle of the game due to testing positive for Covid. Oh boy, good thing the series is over.

Edit: Wow... Manfred just said they learned of the positive test DURING the game. How do they even play WITHOUT finding out the results of testing first? MLB just took a major loss with how that was handled.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

Dodgers finally win but Justin Turner left in the middle of the game due to testing positive for Covid. Oh boy, good thing the series is over.

Edit: Wow... Manfred just said they learned of the positive test DURING the game. How do they even play WITHOUT finding out the results of testing first? MLB just took a major loss with how that was handled.

Fuck it, ya know?

 

[RavensMania]

No one will convince me otherwise but we lost due to collusion from the sports media, the refs, and the football gods. We had no chance of winning the game. The ending proved it was an illusion until the curtains came crashing down.

All week long, we had to hear about Brees never beaten the Ravens in his career. I knew right then that the handwriting was on the wall.

Lets stop talking about the past and move onto the future!

 

[RavensMania]

@RavensMania, gonna need Lost's reaction to the Dodgers

his reaction is Roberts still needs to go because the Barry Switzer of MLB. He's sick and tired of how he over manages and of course having three different bullpen games is absolutely absurd.

He also said, Finally. Those were his words.

 

[Deebo813]

So lamar is basically last in passing yrds wtf. Only qbs under him are the ones that missed games

 

[RavensFan419]

Lamar said him and the QBs spent some extra time with the WRs during the bye. That makes me very happy hopefully we start to get things rolling

 

[rmcjacket23]

So lamar is basically last in passing yrds wtf. Only qbs under him are the ones that missed games

I mean... not really any different than 2019. He was 22nd in passing yardage last year, and only two QBs that started the same or more games than him threw less. That was Josh Allen and Jacoby Brissett. His passing yardage from 2019 was basically right on par with Mitch Trubisky's.

Passing yardage is merely a product of attempts really. Guys that throw the ball a lot tend to have a lot more yardage than guys who don't throw it that much.

Lamar's passing volume is basically the same as 2019. He's attempting, on average, roughly 27 passes a game, which is going to rank him very low in comparison to other QBs. But that also doesn't matter. What matter is...

1. Completion % is down from 66% to 63%. Not really that huge of a drop in the grand scheme of things, though.
2. Yards/attempt is down from 7.8 to 7.0. Some would argue this isn't a particularly great metric either, especially for QBs who throw short passes and depend on YAC. Guys like Big Ben, Burrow, Brady and Kyler Murray have comparable YPA, while guys like Cousins, Carr, Bridgewater, Jimmy G and Rivers are up around 8.0, and nobody would say those guys are lighting the world on fire.
3. His TD% has fallen from 9.0% (though I'd argue this was impossible to continue) down to 6.2%. 6% is still a pretty good number for QBs, though.
4. Turnovers really haven't been a problem.
5. Perhaps one area of note would be sacks. He's being sacked at the 4th highest rate in the league currently, at 8.5%. The guys that are in his class are playing behind well known poor offensive lines (Darnold, Wentz, Burrow, Watson, Haskins, Jones).
Meanwhile, if you go to the list of QBs being sacked the least, its pretty much a full list of playoff contenders and MVP candidates (Rivers, Brady, Rodgers, Tannehill, Murray, Goff, Big Ben).
For context, his 2019 rate was 5.4%, which was top 10 lowest in the league.

If you wanted me to summarize Lamar's problems as a passer:
1. Holding the ball too long and taking unnecessary sacks in certain cases, though the decline of the offensive line isn't unnoticed here.
2. Not making big plays on deep balls, which partially explains lower comp % and YPA

As a runner, he's got a basically identical YPC at 6.9, but its just lower volume. He's running the ball about 3-4 times less per game, on average.

 

[rmcjacket23]

his reaction is Roberts still needs to go because the Barry Switzer of MLB. He's sick and tired of how he over manages and of course having three different bullpen games is absolutely absurd.

He also said, Finally. Those were his words.

1. I don't think three bullpen games was the plan. Ineffective pitching was the plan. Plus, in modern MLB, no team has like 3-4 starters that they trust to go 6+ innings in a postseason game. They barely have that trust in the regular season. A great pitching staff will have 3 guys, which means you're getting at least 1-2 bullpen games, assuming that they even pitch well. Neither the Dodgers or Rays had three trustworthy starters to trot out there.
2. They didn't really get the opportunity to line up their pitching the way they wanted. That's what happens when you fall behind 3-1 in the NLCS and make three straight games elimination games.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Dodgers finally win but Justin Turner left in the middle of the game due to testing positive for Covid. Oh boy, good thing the series is over.

Edit: Wow... Manfred just said they learned of the positive test DURING the game. How do they even play WITHOUT finding out the results of testing first? MLB just took a major loss with how that was handled.

So, this is actually quite easy to explain...

1. Players go through daily testing. They were tested on Monday (the off day) and those tests were submitted.
2. For whatever logistical reason that I'm not sure has been identified yet, those Monday samples for both teams didn't arrive to the testing facility until "late", which was basically at some point on Tuesday. My understanding is they're supposed to arrive same day or the following day, prior to the start of the subsequent game.
3. Those Monday tests were tested (results take about 2 hours apparently) and Turner's was the only one flagged for being inconclusive (not positive, but unable to determine, basically).
4. At that point, the Tuesday tests had already arrived at the facility, and Turner's was rapidly tested to determine. He was deemed positive.

If you think about how it lined up, MLB basically got the inconclusive result in the 2nd inning, and then tested the new sample. They yanked him late in the game, which makes sense for the 2 hour turnaround.

I did see one article where MLB indicated that they DID have inconclusive samples throughout the regular season, but did not once remove a player from a game or put them in protocol for an inconclusive test. They waited for determination.

So, realistically, the only thing I've seen done "wrong" here is whatever logistical screwup they had that delayed the Monday tests. Realistically, if that was done correctly, they would have known about his positive on Tuesday and not allowed him to play.

 

[RavensMania]

1. I don't think three bullpen games was the plan. Ineffective pitching was the plan. Plus, in modern MLB, no team has like 3-4 starters that they trust to go 6+ innings in a postseason game. They barely have that trust in the regular season. A great pitching staff will have 3 guys, which means you're getting at least 1-2 bullpen games, assuming that they even pitch well. Neither the Dodgers or Rays had three trustworthy starters to trot out there.
2. They didn't really get the opportunity to line up their pitching the way they wanted. That's what happens when you fall behind 3-1 in the NLCS and make three straight games elimination games.

the 2nd bullpen game wasn't meant to be a bullpen game but Urias was pulled in that game in the 4th inning despite him playing well. I understand they didn't get the opportunity to line the pitching up the way they wanted, but they really didn't need to pull Urias after 4 innings and basically make 5/9th of a bullpen game.

Last year the closest thing the Nationals came to a bullpen game was in game 5, the game Scherzer was scratched, they brought out Ross.


The Dodgers have an excellent set of starters and didn't need to have 2 1/2 bullpen games, not even close. It wasn't the reason they lost game four but they shouldn't have been put in that position. Pulling Urias after 4 innings was way over managing the game, something that Roberts does a lot. I don't watch the Dodgers all the time, but have two friends who live locally that still want Roberts fired and Lost has been asking for that for years.

 

[rmcjacket23]

the 2nd bullpen game wasn't meant to be a bullpen game but Urias was pulled in that game in the 4th inning despite him playing well. I understand they didn't get the opportunity to line the pitching up the way they wanted, but they really didn't need to pull Urias after 4 innings and basically make 5/9th of a bullpen game.

Last year the closest thing the Nationals came to a bullpen game was in game 5, the game Scherzer was scratched, they brought out Ross.


The Dodgers have an excellent set of starters and didn't need to have 2 1/2 bullpen games, not even close. It wasn't the reason they lost game four but they shouldn't have been put in that position. Pulling Urias after 4 innings was way over managing the game, something that Roberts does a lot. I don't watch the Dodgers all the time, but have two friends who live locally that still want Roberts fired and Lost has been asking for that for years.

I mean essentially, it all comes down to analytics...
1. Urias was going to be heading into his 3rd trip through the order as he went into the 5th inning. Baseball is largely driven by analytics. Pretty much all the analytics would tell you that the more frequency a lineup sees a pitcher, the more comfortable they become, especially as the pitcher tires. That's why "bullpen games" essentially amount to no single pitcher getting more than 2 trips through an order. A trip bullpen game is mostly one time through the order, if that.
In this case, Urias, who has virtually no postseason experience, isn't really the kind of guy that you want the Rays seeing 3-4 times. Maybe 4 innings it too short, but 6-7 innings is also too long. If I were a betting man, and they had left Urias in there for another 2 innings, I would have bet runs would have started to accumulate for Tampa.
So maybe its not 5/9th, but its going to be 4/9ths most of the time.
2. If look at the Nationals WS win, its not what you think it is:
1. Scherzer only went 5 innings in game 1 and game 7. He was over 100 pitches in both outings.
2. Sanchez went 5.1 in game 3. They were actually criticized for leaving him in too long, as he gave up 2 runs in 4 innings but started to fade badly in the 5th and 6th.
3. Ross pitched game 5 and went 5 innings as well, and did not pitch particularly well. This was the game Scherzer was scratched.

So in 4 of their 7 games, their starters, which includes the likes of Scherzer, failed to make it through 6 full innings. There may not have been a true "bullpen game" in there, but you're really haggling over 4 innings vs like 5 innings.

Its also not an apples to apples comparison. The 2019 WS had two teams with elite pitching, including the likes of Scherzer, Strasburg, Greinke, Verlander and Cole.

The Dodgers basically have Kershaw and Buehler, with some young guys who hadn't really been stretched out all year, and the Rays have Glasnow and Snell, who are both coming back from significant injuries and also rarely go long in games. I think I saw a stat where Snell hadn't pitched into like the 6th or 7th inning since like July 2019.

Its just the nature of present day MLB.

As far as firing Roberts, you could go that route, but managers have so very little impact on baseball these days. Their in-game decisions are largely decided in advance based on analytics, and manager jobs these days are largely predicated on putting the roster on the field the way the FO designed it, and not screwing it up. Its why a lot of teams are hiring managers in prominent roles with little or no experience whatsoever. They don't care if they have any.

 

[ravenslord]

So lamar is basically last in passing yrds wtf. Only qbs under him are the ones that missed games

And yet we still 5-1

 

[RavensMania]

I mean essentially, it all comes down to analytics...
1. Urias was going to be heading into his 3rd trip through the order as he went into the 5th inning. Baseball is largely driven by analytics. Pretty much all the analytics would tell you that the more frequency a lineup sees a pitcher, the more comfortable they become, especially as the pitcher tires. That's why "bullpen games" essentially amount to no single pitcher getting more than 2 trips through an order. A trip bullpen game is mostly one time through the order, if that.
In this case, Urias, who has virtually no postseason experience, isn't really the kind of guy that you want the Rays seeing 3-4 times. Maybe 4 innings it too short, but 6-7 innings is also too long. If I were a betting man, and they had left Urias in there for another 2 innings, I would have bet runs would have started to accumulate for Tampa.
So maybe its not 5/9th, but its going to be 4/9ths most of the time.
2. If look at the Nationals WS win, its not what you think it is:
1. Scherzer only went 5 innings in game 1 and game 7. He was over 100 pitches in both outings.
2. Sanchez went 5.1 in game 3. They were actually criticized for leaving him in too long, as he gave up 2 runs in 4 innings but started to fade badly in the 5th and 6th.
3. Ross pitched game 5 and went 5 innings as well, and did not pitch particularly well. This was the game Scherzer was scratched.

So in 4 of their 7 games, their starters, which includes the likes of Scherzer, failed to make it through 6 full innings. There may not have been a true "bullpen game" in there, but you're really haggling over 4 innings vs like 5 innings.

Its also not an apples to apples comparison. The 2019 WS had two teams with elite pitching, including the likes of Scherzer, Strasburg, Greinke, Verlander and Cole.

The Dodgers basically have Kershaw and Buehler, with some young guys who hadn't really been stretched out all year, and the Rays have Glasnow and Snell, who are both coming back from significant injuries and also rarely go long in games. I think I saw a stat where Snell hadn't pitched into like the 6th or 7th inning since like July 2019.

Its just the nature of present day MLB.

As far as firing Roberts, you could go that route, but managers have so very little impact on baseball these days. Their in-game decisions are largely decided in advance based on analytics, and manager jobs these days are largely predicated on putting the roster on the field the way the FO designed it, and not screwing it up. Its why a lot of teams are hiring managers in prominent roles with little or no experience whatsoever. They don't care if they have any.

I'm a Nationals fan and know how many innings they pitched in those games. I'm a very big Nats fan and avid MLB fan.

Still say 4 innings is too little and understand analytics is huge in baseball but sometimes you just have to stick with logic.

Scherzer pitched into the 5th inning and then they brought in middle relief. That's fine and the reason was due to his injury prior to the end of the year. That was completely understandable and still a good inning longer than 4 innings.

I'm not advocating firing Roberts due to how often he gets his team to the postseason, even if he does ride one hell of a talented squad up and down the lineup. Only passing on some Dodgers fans friends view point. I totally understand why they have been upset at him though.

A good manager doesn't just use analytics, he uses it in helping him make decisions, but not the only reason. Far from it. I'm a big fan of analytics, but understand sometimes you have to stick with your gut.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

does it seem like elliott isnt hitting like an absolute missile anymore? just turned on a new highlight video and it opened up with one of his big hits on kareem hunt, and weeks 1-2 he was the most reckless fuck ive ever seen on a field, i feel like i havent seen any of those hits recently. i wonder if one of the coaches told him to calm it down because i feel like hes been a much more controlled form tackler.

 

[rmcjacket23]

does it seem like elliott isnt hitting like an absolute missile anymore? just turned on a new highlight video and it opened up with one of his big hits on kareem hunt, and weeks 1-2 he was the most reckless fuck ive ever seen on a field, i feel like i havent seen any of those hits recently. i wonder if one of the coaches told him to calm it down because i feel like hes been a much more controlled form tackler.

I mean... do you blame them? Like yeah you can be Bernard Pollard, but that guy is on the sidelines a lot too, gets flagged a lot, and also isn't that disciplined of a player.
There's a middle ground, and the coaching staff would be best served steering him down that path. Not to mention the number of times I see some of these "thumpers" go out of their way to lay big hits in games, only to not make good contact, basically whiff on the tackle, and the ball carries breaks free for an even bigger gain. And when you're a safety, a lot of times, there's nobody behind you to clean up your mess.

 

[cdp]

So lamar is basically last in passing yrds wtf. Only qbs under him are the ones that missed games

ugh...but this starts with receivers not getting open. Teams are basically flooding the middle of the field with defenders and we don't take advantage of it. If Roman's a good OC, he will start calling screens and run some spread concepts.

 

[RL52TheGreatest]

does it seem like elliott isnt hitting like an absolute missile anymore? just turned on a new highlight video and it opened up with one of his big hits on kareem hunt, and weeks 1-2 he was the most reckless fuck ive ever seen on a field, i feel like i havent seen any of those hits recently. i wonder if one of the coaches told him to calm it down because i feel like hes been a much more controlled form tackler.

It's for the best. I bet we'll still see some of those hits on occasion, but I'd rather see Elliott stay healthy. I wouldn't be surprised if he's just modeling his game after Marlon especially since he's adopted Marlon's punchout move in recent weeks.

 

[Adreme]

ugh...but this starts with receivers not getting open. Teams are basically flooding the middle of the field with defenders and we don't take advantage of it. If Roman's a good OC, he will start calling screens and run some spread concepts.

We have seen the Ravens try to run screens... they dont work. Lamar has missed a LOT of throws this season, like way more than one should be comfortable with. A large of the difference is on him and him needing to make those throws.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

I mean... do you blame them? Like yeah you can be Bernard Pollard, but that guy is on the sidelines a lot too, gets flagged a lot, and also isn't that disciplined of a player.
There's a middle ground, and the coaching staff would be best served steering him down that path. Not to mention the number of times I see some of these "thumpers" go out of their way to lay big hits in games, only to not make good contact, basically whiff on the tackle, and the ball carries breaks free for an even bigger gain. And when you're a safety, a lot of times, there's nobody behind you to clean up your mess.

I’m not complaining lol