cdp
Ravens Ring of Honor
Here's my take from a purely analytic standpoint:No, running while down on the scoreboard isn't futile. Running the same offense we run (even if its "non traditional") and expecting the same output when you're down 2-3 scores is futile, just because it worked when you weren't down 2-3 scores.
The context that I think you're missing is that you seem to think we can just decide what we want to do and execute on it whenever we feel like it. I would think, if nothing else, the Tennessee game shows you that we can't. You can run up-tempo and be "balanced" and still end up punting after having the ball for less than 2 minutes. That's certainly possible in this offense. The reason teams go pass-heavy in these types of spots is because, even in this offense, the average pass completion gets at least double the yardage of the average running play. And an incompletion, which gets no yardage, at least stops the clock, as opposed to a running play which gains no yardage, which doesn't. THAT is why teams throw in that spot, and even run-heavy teams do. Because a failed pass attempt stops the clock, and a completed pass attempt, on average, is going to gain significantly more yardage than a running play will. And when you're down 2-3 scores in the 2nd half, the clock is almost as important as your ability to matriculate the ball down the field and score.
Our rushing offense is explosive and untraditional when compared to the rest of the league, but our passing offense is still more effective. EPA (expected points added) is a measure which we can use to analyze how much value a play adds. It accounts for down and distance, which other statistics neglect. Our rushing offense has an EPA of 0.093 - #1 in the league – Titans and Patriots are to some extent close but the rest trail behind. We can conclude our rushing offense is by far the most efficient and is more likely to score. However, our passing offense has an EPA value of 0.125 – 15th in the league – which means our passing offense is better even though we have one of the best rushing offenses ever.