The Random Thought Thread

[RavensMania]

If you change it to where you have to match scores you get an obvious advantage to the team getting the ball 2nd. Watch on coin they will choose to kick. I mean why not. A three and out will give you field advantage. Turnover. Knowing if you need to go for it on 4th regardless where you're on the field. Having the option to go for 2. It's fine as it is. You know you gotta stop a team from going usually 75 yds. Maybe get rid of the coin flip somehow. Have a danceoff and let the crowd decide. j/k

I'm one that doesn't want the rules changed for playoff games. If you're going to change the rules, you might as well do it for all the games. I still feel the rule is fine. Just stop them on defense and score when you get the ball back. I'd also like to know what the % is for teams who get the ball first to win the game.

 

[Simba]

I'm one that doesn't want the rules changed for playoff games. If you're going to change the rules, you might as well do it for all the games. I still feel the rule is fine. Just stop them on defense and score when you get the ball back. I'd also like to know what the % is for teams who get the ball first to win the game.

52.8% of teams that won the coin toss also won the game. However, in the playoffs, 90% (9/10) of teams that have won the coin toss have won the game.

Which in a roundabout way, makes sense. The teams that make it to the playoffs nowadays are typically the offensive juggernauts. Whoever wins the coin toss there feels like they have a very distinct advantage regardless of what D they're facing.

 

[rossihunter2]

I like the concept but it may not be as practical in football. Baseball games sometimes go on until the wee hours of the morning, or until curfews are reached. The one big issue with football is the potential for increased injuries, and just fatigue. They have to end the the game as quickly as possibly, and as fairly as possible. IMO the Bills defense blew that game. With 13 left on the clock they should have been in press coverage and in attack mode. Reminded of Pees shit when he was here.

and the stats on the college football style playoffs format (of being allowed to match) heavily favours the team who goes 2nd because they know what they have to do to win

In the current format the team that wins the toss wins in OT something like 53% of the time

in the cfb format the team that goes 2 wins something like 63% of the time

I think maybe the solution is to do the overtime coin toss before the game as well so that both teams know who’s getting the ball first in OT before they get there and teams can play the end of the 4th quarter knowing what the OT looks like (and might decide to do what harbs did a couple of times this year and go for 2 to win rather than taking the PAT to head to OT)

 

[rossihunter2]

52.8% of teams that won the coin toss also won the game. However, in the playoffs, 90% (9/10) of teams that have won the coin toss have won the game.

Which in a roundabout way, makes sense. The teams that make it to the playoffs nowadays are typically the offensive juggernauts. Whoever wins the coin toss there feels like they have a very distinct advantage regardless of what D they're facing.

There’s something to that for sure - but also that playoff sample size is so small

 

[SaltyDog]

and the stats on the college football style playoffs format (of being allowed to match) heavily favours the team who goes 2nd because they know what they have to do to win

In the current format the team that wins the toss wins in OT something like 53% of the time

in the cfb format the team that goes 2 wins something like 63% of the time

I think maybe the solution is to do the overtime coin toss before the game as well so that both teams know who’s getting the ball first in OT before they get there and teams can play the end of the 4th quarter knowing what the OT looks like (and might decide to do what harbs did a couple of times this year and go for 2 to win rather than taking the PAT to head to OT)

I like that idea, and no reason that couldn’t be done during regular season. It could be done during pregame warm ups so no extra time required between regulation and OT.

 

[Simba]

There’s something to that for sure - but also that playoff sample size is so small

Definitely agreed on the sample size and why I called it out

But does at least highlight where this league is going and why changes will need to be made at some point. The rules already cater to offense much more than defense and it just gets exacerbated in the playoffs because that’s where the best offensive teams typically get to face off. As much as I love the defensive effort some teams have shown in the playoffs, I’d be hard pressed to believe there’s one of them that would have been able to stop the Chiefs or the Bills in a similar situation.

 

[rossihunter2]

Definitely agreed on the sample size and why I called it out

But does at least highlight where this league is going and why changes will need to be made at some point. The rules already cater to offense much more than defense and it just gets exacerbated in the playoffs because that’s where the best offensive teams typically get to face off. As much as I love the defensive effort some teams have shown in the playoffs, I’d be hard pressed to believe there’s one of them that would have been able to stop the Chiefs or the Bills in a similar situation.

idk I think both those defences were gassed and getting no pressure on each other and were missing important players on the back end

 

[RavensMania]

52.8% of teams that won the coin toss also won the game. However, in the playoffs, 90% (9/10) of teams that have won the coin toss have won the game.

Which in a roundabout way, makes sense. The teams that make it to the playoffs nowadays are typically the offensive juggernauts. Whoever wins the coin toss there feels like they have a very distinct advantage regardless of what D they're facing.

Didn't realize we have had 10 OT games in the playoffs and thank you for the %. Knowing this information makes it much easier to come to a conclusion that something needs to be done in the playoffs. However, I wouldn't be against the same rules applying during the season.

 

[Adreme]

Didn't realize we have had 10 OT games in the playoffs and thank you for the %. Knowing this information makes it much easier to come to a conclusion that something needs to be done in the playoffs. However, I wouldn't be against the same rules applying during the season.

The thing is if you let each team have the ball no matter what, then with these offensive juggernauts you are in the position just one possession later. If you are going to let each team have it until one does not score a TD then you are basically the college football OT rule without stupid starting at the 25 part (which is dumb because that is not football).I guess if you did that and removed the extra point (so only 2pt conversions) you would have something fair but could players bodies hold up?

 

[RavensMania]

The thing is if you let each team have the ball no matter what, then with these offensive juggernauts you are in the position just one possession later. If you are going to let each team have it until one does not score a TD then you are basically the college football OT rule without stupid starting at the 25 part (which is dumb because that is not football).I guess if you did that and removed the extra point (so only 2pt conversions) you would have something fair but could players bodies hold up?

That is definitely something to be concerned about. Also if you have an overtime game that continues into OT 2 than they are at a complete disadvantage coming into the next week, but thats another thing altogether. Just go back to the Chargers Dolphins OT game back in the early 80s (yes it was a long time ago) and the following week vs the Bengals for one example. BTW, that Chargers Dolphins game was arguably one of the best games all time.

 

[rossihunter2]

The thing is if you let each team have the ball no matter what, then with these offensive juggernauts you are in the position just one possession later. If you are going to let each team have it until one does not score a TD then you are basically the college football OT rule without stupid starting at the 25 part (which is dumb because that is not football).I guess if you did that and removed the extra point (so only 2pt conversions) you would have something fair but could players bodies hold up?

it also completely removes ties from the equation in the regular season and idk about y'all but ties are fun and funny to me - we should embrace their continued existence

the other option is the ravens suggestion from last year which is the "spot and choose" rule where overtime rules are the same but rather than a coin flip to decide a possession like normal you end up with one team picking a spot on the field e.g. the 10 yard line and then the other team gets to choose if they want to play offence or defence from that spot - adds some tactics - obviously there's some benefit to the "choose" team because ultimately they can always choose to take the ball first no matter where the other time elects to spot it but would they want to if it was put inside the 10 or 5 or something like that

idk if it solves anything but it at least adds some tactical nuance to the OT scenario and will at least feel like the team receiving first has somewhat earned it (because they took the ball in a spot that the other team put them in or opted out of taking the ball from)

 

[29BmoreBird22]

52.8% of teams that won the coin toss also won the game. However, in the playoffs, 90% (9/10) of teams that have won the coin toss have won the game.

Which in a roundabout way, makes sense. The teams that make it to the playoffs nowadays are typically the offensive juggernauts. Whoever wins the coin toss there feels like they have a very distinct advantage regardless of what D they're facing.

Worth noting that for the playoffs, it's 9/10, but three of those teams did not win on the opening drive.

 

[marklar]

You could also get *really* creative with overtime. In hockey (at least here, don't know how it is in the NHL), you run the overtime 3-on-3. Which is a pretty insane difference to the regular time. It somehow seems to work with getting more overtime goals and both fans and players seem to lie it, so the NFL could do insane things as well. Not necessarily reducing number of players, but let's say that the team to first posses the ball only gets 3 downs instead of 4. Or that every 1st down is 15 yards. And then get back to the normal format after that first drive.
I'm not claiming any of the above are good ideas, I just grabbed them out of my ass while writing this; the point is that you could take a lot of freedom with the game itself to both balance overtime and to make them more interesting.

 

[UPennChem]

@rossihunter2 you always put so much work into your college football player evaluations and literally make a big board. I feel like it would be really fun to look a few years later back at them and create some metric to see how you are as a GM lol

 

[rossihunter2]

@rossihunter2 you always put so much work into your college football player evaluations and literally make a big board. I feel like it would be really fun to look a few years later back at them and create some metric to see how you are as a GM lol

haha would certainly be interesting
i never finished my board in 2019

but ive got 2018, 2020, 2021 (and 2022) boards still saved somewhere
but ive only got grades and profiles still for 2021 and 2022

but as many guys as im proud of their evaluations - im not sure ill be able to live down just how high i was on josh rosen, equanimeous st brown and many many more lol

 

[UPennChem]

haha would certainly be interesting
i never finished my board in 2019

but ive got 2018, 2020, 2021 (and 2022) boards still saved somewhere
but ive only got grades and profiles still for 2021 and 2022

but as many guys as im proud of their evaluations - im not sure ill be able to live down just how high i was on josh rosen, equanimeous st brown and many many more lol

Yeah it would be fun!! It would be fun to see the hit rate hahaha. I bet you it's decently high

 

[rossihunter2]

Yeah it would be fun!! It would be fun to see the hit rate hahaha. I bet you it's decently high

certainly interesting - and i sometimes go back to them personally to help me improve - to see what i got right, where i might have missed and why that was

ive definitely got better and better certainly since 2018 when i started getting more serious (because we started needing to look at QBs)
and my ability to evaluate certain positions (especially OL) has got a lot better over the last couple of years (still struggle with linebacker and safety a fair amount)

 

[UPennChem]

certainly interesting - and i sometimes go back to them personally to help me improve - to see what i got right, where i might have missed and why that was

ive definitely got better and better certainly since 2018 when i started getting more serious (because we started needing to look at QBs)
and my ability to evaluate certain positions (especially OL) has got a lot better over the last couple of years (still struggle with linebacker and safety a fair amount)

Well I'm gonna lean on you for some OT suggestions this year!!!

 

[Davesta]

Lol. What a jokester that deshon is.

 

[rossihunter2]

Well I'm gonna lean on you for some OT suggestions this year!!!

haha of course - ive already preliminarily graded 8 OTs, 2 OGs and 1 OC so far