Grim
Ravens Ring of Honor
tl;dr: this is probably accurate despite recent hype that there will be a run on QB but it rarely coming to fruition.I found this from Matt Miller interesting:
The 2020 quarterback class feels like one in which the order is mostly set—Burrow, Tua, Love/Herbert, Jacob Eason from Washington and then Jake Fromm of Georgia. There's a good chance we see all six drafted in the top 50 selections.
In talking to scouts this week, there is a strong feeling that demand will drive up the value of the supply. Take Fromm, for example. There are scouts who believe the Georgia quarterback's football IQ and experience will impress teams enough that they'll overlook a largely average career statistically at Georgia.
You could poke holes in every quarterback prospect in this class—Burrow's inexperience, Tua's injuries, decision-making from Herbert, Love and Eason—but the simple fact that so many teams need a 2020 starter or quarterback of the future is likely to drive value up.
When asked for a prediction, one personnel executive said five quarterbacks will be drafted in the top 15 picks.
8. The bad news about potentially six quarterbacks being drafted in the top 50 picks is that there isn't much depth after that. Oklahoma's Jalen Hurts struggled all week and was seen as maybe the next-best option at quarterback.
On my current big board, there are six quarterbacks in the top 60, but after that, the next quarterback is Hurts at No. 130 overall and then Cole McDonald from Hawaii at No. 185. This lack of quarterback depth in the middle rounds is why we could see aggressive moves from teams to come up the board to take a passer.
This isn't a year to hold off until Round 2 or 3 to get a quarterback you can develop. There's no Dak Prescott or Russell Wilson waiting in this class. If you need a quarterback, you'll be drafting one early.
Could be good news for us if the QB values get inflated because of the scarcity down the board - kind of the opposite of the receivers who might see some of the non-top 3 drifting down the board a little further because of the extreme talent at every level on the board
Don’t you feel like you’ve heard this narrative a lot though? I feel like we hear this every year and I can’t recall how often it is validated. Let’s examine the 12 teams who may be looking for a new or future QB to groom:
#1 CIN: yes
#2 WAS: maybe but unlikely due to 2019 pick
#3 DET: maybe but unlikely; Matt Stafford
#5, #18, #26 MIA: yes; 3 1st round picks too
#6 LAC: yes, very likely
#7 CAR: possible; may need to trade up
#9 & #20 JAX: maybe but unlikely; Mineshew & Foles. Have 2 1st round picks though so possible
#13 IND: possible; may need to trade up
#14 TB: maybe but more unlikely
#23 NE: very possible; may even trade up
#29 TEN: possible; will likely need to trade up
PIT: backup QB depth highly concerning and Ben questionable with injuries and retirement.
We have an unprecedented FA QB class too with the following top 6 FA QB:
Brees, Brady, Bridgewater, Rivers, Tannehill, Prescott. Brees & Prescott are very likely to stay in NO & DAL so I’m removing them & I also think Tannehill gets the tag while they re-sign Henry to a long term deal. I’ve heard Rivers could be going to TB so that means NO, DAL, & TB have no need of QB while TEN may need one but will likely risk it to probably improve their defense. That leaves FA QB as Brady, & Bridgewater without current projections. NE will try to keep Brady but whether they do or don’t I expect them & whoever signs Tom to have a backup plan drafted high. That means I’m guessing Bridgewater is the top FA QB with a lot of hungry mouths to feed. I guess it is possible we could see a big run for those QB based on this analysis.