The Random Thought Thread

[rmcjacket23]

Now that we're inching toward the end of the season, here are my thoughts on the impending FAs...

Anthony Averett - tough one here. He's been a good CB for us but also have Peters returning. You can only invest so much but CB remains a long term need and if you can keep him for a decent contract, you do it. Could get near top of market though.

Bradley Bozeman - another tough one. He's been a solid option at C which is big for us. Wouldn't pay top of market but would expect him to be a priority on a market value contract. Fits the Ravens mold on and off the field.

DeShon Elliott - who knows what the injury will do. Would guess he's gone but if his market is non-existent, he could take a 1 year deal to rehab value.

Calais Campbell - if he's interested in playing, I'd retain him. Approaching the "bargain" stage of his career.

Brandon Williams - we're better against the run with him but health has been an issue and I'd think it's time to move on. Could come back at a discount but I think we're going to attempt to get younger here.

Sammy Watkins - Bateman should ascend to WR2 and Duvernay is doing well as WR3. No need to keep him around.

Patrick Ricard - he's staying. Important part of the offense and I'd be shocked if they let him go.

Jimmy Smith - he's retiring. Body can't handle it anymore

Justin Houston - if you can retain him for something similar to what he's making this year, it's a no brainer. Sack numbers aren't huge but he's been a good player for us.

Chris Board - should be cheap enough to retain

Justin Ellis - a good rotational piece. Keep signing him for the minimum if you can.

LJ Fort - not sure it matters much but I'd keep dialogue open for his return. Can't go wrong at the minimum.

Latavius Murray - bye

Devonta Freeman - bye

Pernell McPhee - bye

Bottom three I agree are goners, and I don't think they'll resign BWill or Jimmy. Even at near veteran minimum deals, at some point, you have to get younger on defense, especially on the Dline and in the secondary (which is rapidly aging). These guys would have even less roles than they already do, and I think out of respect for two players that have played here a very long time, they'll let them seek opportunities elsewhere or retire.
I think Bozeman and Ricard will be "priority" re-signs. I think we value both of them quite a bit and will look to retain. Ricard won't be that expensive, and will just have to see what the market for Bozeman is.
Houston and Campbell I could "potentially" see coming back, though Campbell nowhere near his current compensation ($8M). And again, its the concept of "these guys are really old" and at some point, you have to get younger. I could see one year deals for both, but I also think we let them go to FA and see if they can do better. Houston's a tough one to gauge what the market will be. Been fairly productive, but didn't get a lot of money this offseason, so not sure if he'll do better or worse next year.
Board and Ellis will get re-signed fairly cheaply. Think they're good depth players and ST contributors that we value, and I think they'll want to stay.
Fort I just don't really care about. I don't know that he and Bynes aren't the same player at this stage, and they're about the same age, though Bynes is obviously healthier. Similar to Dline, I suspect they'll make a commitment to get younger and better at this position, potentially with a high draft pick. Probably one of either Bynes or Fort stays, and the other is gone.

The three hardest decisions for me are:
1. Averett. Honestly have no clue. Some of it may not even have to do with Averett. Peters and Young are both under contract for another year. Peters has a $15.5M cap hit coming off a major injury, with a $10M salary. I don't see the Ravens sticking with either. He could get extended, or he could get cut. Neither would surprise me. An extension likely means that Averett doesn't stick around, and cutting Peters likely means they're committed to keeping Averett.
I also have zero clue what they'll do with Tavon Young. Three months ago, I'd have told you there was like a 95% certainty this was his last year in Baltimore. But he may be the most consistent Corner I've seen on film this year of the three, and he's quite a bit more affordable than Peters and whatever Averett will get. He's owed $5.8M in salary with a $9.2M cap hit. They could broach him for a paycut for like the third straight year, but honestly, he should probably decline it, because I think there's plenty of teams that would give him more than $5.8M a year to play slot corner for them for a few years.
My "gut" says they extend Peters for another year or two, keep Tavon, and Averett hits the market. We try to keep, but he goes for more money elsewhere.
2. Pre-injury, I think Elliott had a good shot to get an extension. Now, I'd say its less than 50% he's back. Feels like they like Stephens (a lot more than I do at the moment), and I'm not sold they won't make finding a ball-hawking Safety a priority in the offseason anyway, either via FA or the draft. If there's one thing I've learned, its that the Ravens value Safety play very highly in this league. A lot more than most teams. We had Ed for the longest time, we threw good money at Weddle, and we threw a lot of money at ET. If we can't get it in the draft, we'll pay for it.
I just don't think he's back.
3. Watkins. I'm kind of on his side here, for no other reason than I haven't seen enough from Duvernay or Proche, outside of being offseason warriors, to think they're going to ascend higher in food chain than they are. As unimpressive as Watkins has been, these guys really aren't beating him out for snaps, which is a shame.
Now I'm not spending a lot of money on a third WR in this offense for sure, because they're just not ever going to be super productive. But one injury to Hollywood or Bateman, and our receiving core doesn't look special to me at all. Normally I'd say "OK, just go draft somebody", but we've done that a ton lately, and I don't think we can afford to spend any more draft capital on receivers. We've got four guys taken in the first three rounds, all on rookie deals, on the roster already.
So my guess is if we're willing to retain him for comparable to what he made this year ($5M), we'll try to bring him back. Possible he doesn't want to come back and try to be a better fit elsewhere, which I won't lose any sleep over either.

 

[redrum52]

Why would they flex us? Got a bad feeling about how this game goes in primetime with how the offense has looked. Marlon about to get done up by Adams.

 

[Dom McRaven]

Thats why you should just blame the players 95% of time like i do lol

98%

 

[Dom McRaven]

pretty sure peters and edwards were sent to i/r after cutdown day because they got injured after cutdown day - and even then i think it's only non-vested vets i.e. guys with 3 or fewer accrued seasons who can't go straight on i/r before cutdown day

We should've known RIGHT THERE that the handwriting was on the wall with how unlucky we were going to be with injuries at times.

 

[Dom McRaven]

Why would they flex us? Got a bad feeling about how this game goes in primetime with how the offense has looked. Marlon about to get done up by Adams.

Mans might have 180+ yards.

 

[JO_75]

So Sean Payton's lover Taysom Hill may get the start on Thursday Night. If he truly is better than Lamar, he needs to throw 8 interceptions AND still win the game. Just saying.

 

[Argentina Raven]

looking at some specific plays on twitter, it looks like there are open Ravens players who did not get the ball, and the error seems to be all of lamar.
beyond all the level he has and all the other people's mistakes that he has to deal with, in certain aspects he continues to have errors from his first year, it seems that his pass readings are Andrews / Brown and what about the rest, before You could see Boykin, now Duvernay or Proche, even Bateman many times open, alone, and Lamar didn't look at them.
At this point in his career and with so many games, they are mistakes that he should no longer have, an experienced substitute qb would help him more? sometimes I feel that lamar is that person who trusts so much in his physical gift that he does not work hard enough to improve other aspects.
Queen For example, with all his criticisms, the boy called Ray and asked him for advice on physical care and surely on other issues, beyond the change of position it is evident in these games that he is better located on the court, no matter what. not the play, that shows study.
lamar doesn't seem the same.
What do you think

 

[Ellicottraven]

looking at some specific plays on twitter, it looks like there are open Ravens players who did not get the ball, and the error seems to be all of lamar.
beyond all the level he has and all the other people's mistakes that he has to deal with, in certain aspects he continues to have errors from his first year, it seems that his pass readings are Andrews / Brown and what about the rest, before You could see Boykin, now Duvernay or Proche, even Bateman many times open, alone, and Lamar didn't look at them.
At this point in his career and with so many games, they are mistakes that he should no longer have, an experienced substitute qb would help him more? sometimes I feel that lamar is that person who trusts so much in his physical gift that he does not work hard enough to improve other aspects.
Queen For example, with all his criticisms, the boy called Ray and asked him for advice on physical care and surely on other issues, beyond the change of position it is evident in these games that he is better located on the court, no matter what. not the play, that shows study.
lamar doesn't seem the same.
What do you think

I think you are overreacting. Don't worry about it. He'll be great in developing rapport with all our WRs once he has time with them.

 

[RavensMania]

looking at some specific plays on twitter, it looks like there are open Ravens players who did not get the ball, and the error seems to be all of lamar.
beyond all the level he has and all the other people's mistakes that he has to deal with, in certain aspects he continues to have errors from his first year, it seems that his pass readings are Andrews / Brown and what about the rest, before You could see Boykin, now Duvernay or Proche, even Bateman many times open, alone, and Lamar didn't look at them.
At this point in his career and with so many games, they are mistakes that he should no longer have, an experienced substitute qb would help him more? sometimes I feel that lamar is that person who trusts so much in his physical gift that he does not work hard enough to improve other aspects.
Queen For example, with all his criticisms, the boy called Ray and asked him for advice on physical care and surely on other issues, beyond the change of position it is evident in these games that he is better located on the court, no matter what. not the play, that shows study.
lamar doesn't seem the same.
What do you think

Lamar is the hardest working QB I've seen in a very long time. Maybe ever. He had one day in camp with Bateman during the preseason before coming down with Covid. When he came back Bateman was out with a groin injury. He's been sick, twice and both have limited reps in practice with Bateman. Other than that, he's still getting decent targets, but will get more as their chemistry progresses. Don't worry about Lamar.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

Bottom three I agree are goners, and I don't think they'll resign BWill or Jimmy. Even at near veteran minimum deals, at some point, you have to get younger on defense, especially on the Dline and in the secondary (which is rapidly aging). These guys would have even less roles than they already do, and I think out of respect for two players that have played here a very long time, they'll let them seek opportunities elsewhere or retire.
I think Bozeman and Ricard will be "priority" re-signs. I think we value both of them quite a bit and will look to retain. Ricard won't be that expensive, and will just have to see what the market for Bozeman is.
Houston and Campbell I could "potentially" see coming back, though Campbell nowhere near his current compensation ($8M). And again, its the concept of "these guys are really old" and at some point, you have to get younger. I could see one year deals for both, but I also think we let them go to FA and see if they can do better. Houston's a tough one to gauge what the market will be. Been fairly productive, but didn't get a lot of money this offseason, so not sure if he'll do better or worse next year.
Board and Ellis will get re-signed fairly cheaply. Think they're good depth players and ST contributors that we value, and I think they'll want to stay.
Fort I just don't really care about. I don't know that he and Bynes aren't the same player at this stage, and they're about the same age, though Bynes is obviously healthier. Similar to Dline, I suspect they'll make a commitment to get younger and better at this position, potentially with a high draft pick. Probably one of either Bynes or Fort stays, and the other is gone.

The three hardest decisions for me are:
1. Averett. Honestly have no clue. Some of it may not even have to do with Averett. Peters and Young are both under contract for another year. Peters has a $15.5M cap hit coming off a major injury, with a $10M salary. I don't see the Ravens sticking with either. He could get extended, or he could get cut. Neither would surprise me. An extension likely means that Averett doesn't stick around, and cutting Peters likely means they're committed to keeping Averett.
I also have zero clue what they'll do with Tavon Young. Three months ago, I'd have told you there was like a 95% certainty this was his last year in Baltimore. But he may be the most consistent Corner I've seen on film this year of the three, and he's quite a bit more affordable than Peters and whatever Averett will get. He's owed $5.8M in salary with a $9.2M cap hit. They could broach him for a paycut for like the third straight year, but honestly, he should probably decline it, because I think there's plenty of teams that would give him more than $5.8M a year to play slot corner for them for a few years.
My "gut" says they extend Peters for another year or two, keep Tavon, and Averett hits the market. We try to keep, but he goes for more money elsewhere.
2. Pre-injury, I think Elliott had a good shot to get an extension. Now, I'd say its less than 50% he's back. Feels like they like Stephens (a lot more than I do at the moment), and I'm not sold they won't make finding a ball-hawking Safety a priority in the offseason anyway, either via FA or the draft. If there's one thing I've learned, its that the Ravens value Safety play very highly in this league. A lot more than most teams. We had Ed for the longest time, we threw good money at Weddle, and we threw a lot of money at ET. If we can't get it in the draft, we'll pay for it.
I just don't think he's back.
3. Watkins. I'm kind of on his side here, for no other reason than I haven't seen enough from Duvernay or Proche, outside of being offseason warriors, to think they're going to ascend higher in food chain than they are. As unimpressive as Watkins has been, these guys really aren't beating him out for snaps, which is a shame.
Now I'm not spending a lot of money on a third WR in this offense for sure, because they're just not ever going to be super productive. But one injury to Hollywood or Bateman, and our receiving core doesn't look special to me at all. Normally I'd say "OK, just go draft somebody", but we've done that a ton lately, and I don't think we can afford to spend any more draft capital on receivers. We've got four guys taken in the first three rounds, all on rookie deals, on the roster already.
So my guess is if we're willing to retain him for comparable to what he made this year ($5M), we'll try to bring him back. Possible he doesn't want to come back and try to be a better fit elsewhere, which I won't lose any sleep over either.

I think there are a shit ton of corners and safeties the ravens can go after in the draft. Feels like rounds 2-5 are loaded with corners, and there’s a fair shot that one of the ravens first 2 picks ends up a safety, Brandon Joseph, daxton hill, Jaquan brisker,

looking at some specific plays on twitter, it looks like there are open Ravens players who did not get the ball, and the error seems to be all of lamar.
beyond all the level he has and all the other people's mistakes that he has to deal with, in certain aspects he continues to have errors from his first year, it seems that his pass readings are Andrews / Brown and what about the rest, before You could see Boykin, now Duvernay or Proche, even Bateman many times open, alone, and Lamar didn't look at them.
At this point in his career and with so many games, they are mistakes that he should no longer have, an experienced substitute qb would help him more? sometimes I feel that lamar is that person who trusts so much in his physical gift that he does not work hard enough to improve other aspects.
Queen For example, with all his criticisms, the boy called Ray and asked him for advice on physical care and surely on other issues, beyond the change of position it is evident in these games that he is better located on the court, no matter what. not the play, that shows study.
lamar doesn't seem the same.
What do you think

I’ll say what everyone else said, and then add in that he has been extremely rushed this season with the OL play, his internal is extremely sped up and he’s just not the same with his progressions. Even with ample time and space, his clock is gonna be faster, he’s uncomfortable

 

[Argentina Raven]

Thanks for the answers!! It was not intended to create controversy or criticism, simply an appreciation of someone who did not grow up with football, and out there compares with situations from other sports or from what he has seen.
I understand the concept of player development, I dedicate myself to that, I am a children's basketball coach, so when I see habits that are repeated I ask myself why?
I think that lamar can make any throw that they ask him, but he repeats a lot of them that give negative results, just an appreciation, I don't know if it is for him, for his partner, for design or for the merit of the rival, or for all of the above

 

[JoeyFlex5]

Thanks for the answers!! It was not intended to create controversy or criticism, simply an appreciation of someone who did not grow up with football, and out there compares with situations from other sports or from what he has seen.
I understand the concept of player development, I dedicate myself to that, I am a children's basketball coach, so when I see habits that are repeated I ask myself why?
I think that lamar can make any throw that they ask him, but he repeats a lot of them that give negative results, just an appreciation, I don't know if it is for him, for his partner, for design or for the merit of the rival, or for all of the above

All good, just so you know I really appreciate you joining the boards and I see that you were going through the effort to translate your thoughts, that takes a lot of extra work and we appreciate your insights, and for being new to football you have a very strong understanding of the game already, I’m impressed!

 

[rossihunter2]

looking at some specific plays on twitter, it looks like there are open Ravens players who did not get the ball, and the error seems to be all of lamar.
beyond all the level he has and all the other people's mistakes that he has to deal with, in certain aspects he continues to have errors from his first year, it seems that his pass readings are Andrews / Brown and what about the rest, before You could see Boykin, now Duvernay or Proche, even Bateman many times open, alone, and Lamar didn't look at them.
At this point in his career and with so many games, they are mistakes that he should no longer have, an experienced substitute qb would help him more? sometimes I feel that lamar is that person who trusts so much in his physical gift that he does not work hard enough to improve other aspects.
Queen For example, with all his criticisms, the boy called Ray and asked him for advice on physical care and surely on other issues, beyond the change of position it is evident in these games that he is better located on the court, no matter what. not the play, that shows study.
lamar doesn't seem the same.
What do you think

i would say that's not true at all - lamar seems to be one of the hardest working ravens ive come across - never makes excuses, puts in tons of extra work in the offseason, never gets rest days (except for actual injuries or illnesses and often has to be told not to come in)

you can levy all sorts of criticisms at lamar (although i feel like the pass reads is a massive overreaction to one really bad game) but there's no doubt about his work ethic at all

 

[rossihunter2]

Thanks for the answers!! It was not intended to create controversy or criticism, simply an appreciation of someone who did not grow up with football, and out there compares with situations from other sports or from what he has seen.
I understand the concept of player development, I dedicate myself to that, I am a children's basketball coach, so when I see habits that are repeated I ask myself why?
I think that lamar can make any throw that they ask him, but he repeats a lot of them that give negative results, just an appreciation, I don't know if it is for him, for his partner, for design or for the merit of the rival, or for all of the above

i think you could argue that mechanical bad habits repeated for a little while but lamar spent a ton of time this offseason working on those mechanics and has massively improved

i think it's hard to argue that he's making the same mistakes that he did as a rookie - this browns game was awful but also is just 1 game - lamar's probably made maybe 6 or 7 throws that were intercepted where he just misread or didnt see the coverage or made an awful throw and has a few more poor throws that werent intercepted...

but with 340+ pass attempts that's not unexpected and it just feels magnified because of recency bias

 

[Argentina Raven]

I don't mean habits
throwing mechanics or footwork and that, because I should have been born there to understand them more.
I mean that tactically it seems to fail more.
At first glance and without going into detail, most of the interceptions are by the center, probably in shots to Andrews mostly.
It seems that before starting the play, he does not look at how the defense is stopped, or what the confrontations are, with which he could "improvise",
He doesn't seem to have a "safety valve", he doesn't seem to take advantage of the "moment" of a certain player, that is, if Bateman is getting 6 or 7 yards per pitch, continue on that path and continue burning the cb.
That's why I say I don't know what the reason is, maybe a more experienced quarterback would help more

 

[rossihunter2]

presented without comment...

 

[redrum52]

presented without comment...

You happen to have the number of targets for each?

 

[Dom McRaven]

Piggybacking off the comments about Lamar and it clearly shows how his work ethic and other intangibles have an impression on his teammates, I loved how the defense said to him (regarding his 4 picks) "Eh. We got you bro. Don't even trip."

 

[rossihunter2]

You happen to have the number of targets for each?

Marlon: 79 targets (pfref) or 70 targets (PFF)
JC Jackson: 75 targets (pfref) or 69 targets (PFF)
Anthony Brown: 75 targets (pfref) or 73 targets (PFF)
Eric Stokes: 71 targets (pfref) or 68 targets (PFF)

all of them in both places are in and around the top 10 in targets (only eric stokes in pfref is outside the top 10 and is 11th lol)

also worth noting that according to pfref marlon and averett are the 2nd and 3rd most targeted corners in the league this year

i imagine CBS is using their own stats but those arent available for direct comparison

 

[Argentina Raven]

returning to the Lamar topic and to close my idea, explain it better:
I want it to be my qb until he folds, no matter if he wins the SB or not (hopefully yes)
He's the most dominant player in the nfl, he's going to be a hall of fame.
Now, I, I notice those tactical issues that I name before, I don't know if it is because he is young, he needs to mature as a qb, they are built-in errors, they are play errors, a mixture of them.
If you say that it is not serious and that it is a matter of time, I accept it, you know more than I do.
days ago, Reed said, the big qb don't take hits, and this year Lamar is getting them in quantities, I think that's why he doesn't run as much as before, but the worst hits always come when your pocket collapses and you didn't get the pitch fast, And to improve that, I think tactics, the film, and diversifying launches for different objectives are essential.
It is not my intention to criticize Lamar, as others do too much