The Random Thought Thread

[rossihunter2]

really interesting article looking at what makes a successful defence with regards to pass rush vs coverage...

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-pff-data-study-coverage-vs-pass-rush-part-three

the implications for judon are pretty big too - i think its telling the way we've built this defence the last few years (back to front) and how that creates a more consistently effective pass defence

i think the suggestion is that investment into pass rush is nowhere near as important as investment on the backend

most interestingly though is that ironically the longer the qb holds onto the ball the better for your defence

they specifically talk about the ravens and why we are philosophically interesting and why our defence works so well given the way we blitz etc.

i think you can see from the way this team has been built by EDC just how much analytics are playing in our team building philosophies and the way harbs is using analytics on the field also has given us so many advantages over every other team in the nfl

 

[purp]

really interesting article looking at what makes a successful defence with regards to pass rush vs coverage...

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-pff-data-study-coverage-vs-pass-rush-part-three

the implications for judon are pretty big too - i think its telling the way we've built this defence the last few years (back to front) and how that creates a more consistently effective pass defence

i think the suggestion is that investment into pass rush is nowhere near as important as investment on the backend

most interestingly though is that ironically the longer the qb holds onto the ball the better for your defence

they specifically talk about the ravens and why we are philosophically interesting and why our defence works so well given the way we blitz etc.

i think you can see from the way this team has been built by EDC just how much analytics are playing in our team building philosophies and the way harbs is using analytics on the field also has given us so many advantages over every other team in the nfl

Very interesting, there are roster building implications too. It’s kind of like saying “Teams win with All Pro Quarterbacks.” Sure they do, it’s just incredibly difficult to find and develop that guy.

I would argue that it’s easier to find a couple competent pass rushers than it is to find 3/4/5 stud defensive backs. It took us 2 first round picks and trades for 3 other first round picks.

The Ravens’ formula is awesome, but what’s even more impressive is the amount of skill it took to execute that formula.

 

[rossihunter2]

 

[rossihunter2]

Very interesting, there are roster building implications too. It’s kind of like saying “Teams win with All Pro Quarterbacks.” Sure they do, it’s just incredibly difficult to find and develop that guy.

I would argue that it’s easier to find a couple competent pass rushers than it is to find 3/4/5 stud defensive backs. It took us 2 first round picks and trades for 3 other first round picks.

The Ravens’ formula is awesome, but what’s even more impressive is the amount of skill it took to execute that formula.

yes that's absolutely part of it - but ultimately its all kinds of investment from draft picks to actual cap space - the largest part of our cap space on the defence is apportioned to the backend - we've got 2 1st round picks that we drafted, a 1st round pick that we signed as a free agent as the 4th highest player at their position in the nfl (at the time), a 1st round pick that we basically traded some day 3 picks for a less than 1 year rental (and then made him the 6th highest paid player at his position in the league) - then on top of that we're paying brandon carr 6m a year and Tony Jefferson got market value from us too

we learned the hard way in the transition years from 2013 through until 2017 just how important talent and depth in the secondary is

at edge rusher we allowed our 2 top edge guys (last year) to leave in free agency (we did try to sign the cheaper one but sizzle left anyway) and replaced them with a 3rd round pick and a street free agent we paid basically vet minimum for - now its important to note that since 2015 we've put in at least 4 day 2 picks into the edge rush (and you could argue maybe 5 but not a single one has really hit yet - we'll see what bowser and ferguson can do in the playoffs and next season) - ironically our best pass rushers since 2014 have been a 2015 4th round pick and a 2016 5th round pick

this is pure conjecture but my guess is it's far easier to find impact pass rushers later in the draft (on average) than corners - ive just gone through all the drafted corners since 2014 and as a rough estimate id say there's maybe less than 10 guys drafted on day 3 who've amounted to anything - my guess is there's far more EDGE guys in that category (given that there's at least 2 ravens in that time period)

 

[rossihunter2]

 

[JO_75]

Didn't know where to put this but it makes for a good discussion. NFL Attendance hit a 15 year low in 2019 averaging 66,648 attendees at home game since 2004. Full list below in the article link but the Ravens had the 13th highest average attendance at 70,628, an 0.3% increase over 2018. I will imagine we are going to be a lot higher in average attendance next season the way Lamar played this season. It's crazy to think that our average attendance is essentially a full stadium. I forgot we only have 70,000 seats to begin with. They should look into adding more seats, increasing to 75,000(in honor of JO) or going to almost 80,000 but I just don't think it's impossible without a new stadium.

https://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily/Issues/2020/01/03/Research-and-Ratings/NFL-Attendance.aspx

 

[rossihunter2]

this is my favourite part of the above PFF article lol:


The relationship between time to throw and coverage prowess (at least aggregated at the team level) was not the same as we saw during the rest of the PFF era (2006 – present), while the relationship between time to throw and pressure rates remained as previously seen (with the exception of the Ravens, who appear to be bucking every league-wide axion). The debate between coverage and pass-rush, to the degree that you can untangle the two of them, is not over, but 2019 pushed us further towards the conclusion that coverage is very, very important and should increasingly be a point of emphasis for teams in the future.

while we've always talked about the ravens revolutionising the game and the way offence is played - wink is changing how you think about playing defence

ultimately harbs and this staff has decided that being passive is not how you win in any phase of the game with any consistency - its that old adage of playing to win vs playing not to lose and we've worked out that by playing to win you win more often than not

 

[allblackraven]

Pat has got a point - why vote 'flex'? It's not a fantasy football.
Should have made fullback vote because Pat and Juice are both much more than classic fullbacks.

 

[rmcjacket23]

yes that's absolutely part of it - but ultimately its all kinds of investment from draft picks to actual cap space - the largest part of our cap space on the defence is apportioned to the backend - we've got 2 1st round picks that we drafted, a 1st round pick that we signed as a free agent as the 4th highest player at their position in the nfl (at the time), a 1st round pick that we basically traded some day 3 picks for a less than 1 year rental (and then made him the 6th highest paid player at his position in the league) - then on top of that we're paying brandon carr 6m a year and Tony Jefferson got market value from us too

we learned the hard way in the transition years from 2013 through until 2017 just how important talent and depth in the secondary is

at edge rusher we allowed our 2 top edge guys (last year) to leave in free agency (we did try to sign the cheaper one but sizzle left anyway) and replaced them with a 3rd round pick and a street free agent we paid basically vet minimum for - now its important to note that since 2015 we've put in at least 4 day 2 picks into the edge rush (and you could argue maybe 5 but not a single one has really hit yet - we'll see what bowser and ferguson can do in the playoffs and next season) - ironically our best pass rushers since 2014 have been a 2015 4th round pick and a 2016 5th round pick

this is pure conjecture but my guess is it's far easier to find impact pass rushers later in the draft (on average) than corners - ive just gone through all the drafted corners since 2014 and as a rough estimate id say there's maybe less than 10 guys drafted on day 3 who've amounted to anything - my guess is there's far more EDGE guys in that category (given that there's at least 2 ravens in that time period)

I think its largely a product of simply investing in your best players. Sure, we let guys like ZaDarius and Kruger and McPhee and others walk throughout the years... but did anybody really think they were the best players on our defense when it happened? In the last 5+ years or so, with the exception of Suggs and Dumervil (who wasn't even really here that long), we haven't had that "elite" pass rusher.

If we were to end up drafting a Von Miller type, I can almost guarantee we will invest more in pass rush and less in the secondary, because we'll break the bank to keep an elite player, and other positions will suffer. I think after 2014 there was an emphasis in having solid depth in the secondary, but frankly, we have a lot more than solid depth. We have 4th corners who could start for just about every team in this league, and at least 3 safeties who could probably start anywhere also.

I think its a product of how great we've been at drafting/developing these guys (Jimmy, Marlon, Tavon, Clark), and how we can get good prices on veterans in certain spots (Peters for cheap this year, Jefferson at a reasonable price). If we had 2-3 game wrecking pass rushers, we probably never trade for Peters, and we probably never sign Thomas.

Its just a lot of our pass rushers have been middle of the draft guys who aren't world-beaters. Judon's a great overall player, but I'm not putting him out there expecting him to challenge for the lead league in sacks or pressures.

 

[allblackraven]

Pay this man!

 

[ravenslord]

Any word on Ingram?

 

[RavensMania]

Didn't know where to put this but it makes for a good discussion. NFL Attendance hit a 15 year low in 2019 averaging 66,648 attendees at home game since 2004. Full list below in the article link but the Ravens had the 13th highest average attendance at 70,628, an 0.3% increase over 2018. I will imagine we are going to be a lot higher in average attendance next season the way Lamar played this season. It's crazy to think that our average attendance is essentially a full stadium. I forgot we only have 70,000 seats to begin with. They should look into adding more seats, increasing to 75,000(in honor of JO) or going to almost 80,000 but I just don't think it's impossible without a new stadium.

https://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily/Issues/2020/01/03/Research-and-Ratings/NFL-Attendance.aspx

We have 80k seats in Landover. Just make the speakers louder and they will be able to hear it there. It's not like they are using the stadium.

 

[Tank]

I remember when we let Juice walk many were saying it didn’t matter and we didn’t need to replace him because the FB position was no longer relevant.

 

[allblackraven]

Any word on Ingram?

On track to play, will practice full speed next week (Harbs)

 

[RavensMania]

Jimmy Smith Interview:

Interesting interview that is actually on the Baltimore Ravens website. Pretty candid, and Jimmy bought some interesting points up through out....

He initially thought that he was done in Baltimore at the beginning of the season, he thought so even more after the Marcus Peters trade. He said that he changed his mind when he got back on the field and started playing well again. Seemed really frustrated and was honest about his history of health (plus bans) in the NFL which is understandable. He'd probably would had made multiple pro bowls had it not been for that.

Said he thinks the 2011 team was the best team in terms of talent that he played with in Baltimore. Says that he thinks this years offense is way better, but that the defense doesn't have as many big names.

He said he spoke to Suggs as soon as the Cardinals released him and pretty much confirmed what we all thought here, that he wanted to come to Baltimore, but that KC were smart to get him before we could.

He doesn't really see home field advantage as big as an advantage as a lot of people on the outside think that it is. He said that he actually prefers going on the road because of the mental advantage it gives you.

Finally said that he plans to play as long as his knees old out (lol), and he also said that DeCosta "better come to him" in the offseason in a half joking tone, answering a question about the contract situation.

I like Jimmy, he has always been an honest and funny guy. I hope we figure something out to bring him back next season.

worth a listen to
https://www.baltimoreravens.com/audi...-by-the-lounge

 

[rossihunter2]

If we were to end up drafting a Von Miller type, I can almost guarantee we will invest more in pass rush and less in the secondary, because we'll break the bank to keep an elite player, and other positions will suffer. I think after 2014 there was an emphasis in having solid depth in the secondary, but frankly, we have a lot more than solid depth. We have 4th corners who could start for just about every team in this league, and at least 3 safeties who could probably start anywhere also.

right but i think what you're seeing now is that the defence that we are running here schematically relies upon the secondary depth more than 4 man pass rush - that's what we mean in terms of roster building - we didnt have to trade for marcus peters and give up draft capital, nor did we have to sign him but we did because he was clearly an ingredient that would help our defence work

and i think what you're also seeing is the start of a sea change - whether we intended to do this or not, the analytics and the form of the best defences in the league would suggest that the secondary is much more important in this league right now where short/quick passing is so efficient - so even if we didnt foresee this and just got lucky with the players we acquired at the time, it's become fairly clear that you should build from the back forwards especially if you want to implement a defensive scheme like we have

 

[rossihunter2]

Any word on Ingram?

expected to be practicing next week according to harbs - not sure if that means on a limited basis or not - i imagine they'll be careful with him for obvious reasons but no suggestion so far that he wont be full go by sunday

 

[rossihunter2]

I remember when we let Juice walk many were saying it didn’t matter and we didn’t need to replace him because the FB position was no longer relevant.

an important note on some of those fullbacks is that they've become fairly multiple

• juice is a multi-purpose back who's part tight end, part running back, part fullback
• Ricard plays in all 3 phases
• Elandon Roberts plays both offence and defence for the pats

 

[rossihunter2]

Jimmy Smith Interview:

Interesting interview that is actually on the Baltimore Ravens website. Pretty candid, and Jimmy bought some interesting points up through out....

He initially thought that he was done in Baltimore at the beginning of the season, he thought so even more after the Marcus Peters trade. He said that he changed his mind when he got back on the field and started playing well again. Seemed really frustrated and was honest about his history of health (plus bans) in the NFL which is understandable. He'd probably would had made multiple pro bowls had it not been for that.

Said he thinks the 2011 team was the best team in terms of talent that he played with in Baltimore. Says that he thinks this years offense is way better, but that the defense doesn't have as many big names.

He said he spoke to Suggs as soon as the Cardinals released him and pretty much confirmed what we all thought here, that he wanted to come to Baltimore, but that KC were smart to get him before we could.

He doesn't really see home field advantage as big as an advantage as a lot of people on the outside think that it is. He said that he actually prefers going on the road because of the mental advantage it gives you.

Finally said that he plans to play as long as his knees old out (lol), and he also said that DeCosta "better come to him" in the offseason in a half joking tone, answering a question about the contract situation.

I like Jimmy, he has always been an honest and funny guy. I hope we figure something out to bring him back next season.

worth a listen to
https://www.baltimoreravens.com/audi...-by-the-lounge

he's also been fairly open to the idea in the last year or so to taking a sort of hometown discount - clearly wants to spend his entire career here but that ultimately the situation will sort itself out

imagine this secondary next year if we did somehow retain jimmy (would probably mean not picking up brandon carr's option) - you'd have marlon, peters and jimmy all at outside corner, tavon as the nickel, earl and chuck and the only thing you're missing is the 2nd safety with ET in the dime package when chuck comes downhill but that might be deshon elliott (who played that role really effectively in the 1st game after TJ got injured)

 

[JPPT1974]

Yeah as really the secondary in the beefing up and retaining Jimmy. Would go from really good to really elite.