The Random Thought Thread

[cdp]

No, running while down on the scoreboard isn't futile. Running the same offense we run (even if its "non traditional") and expecting the same output when you're down 2-3 scores is futile, just because it worked when you weren't down 2-3 scores.

The context that I think you're missing is that you seem to think we can just decide what we want to do and execute on it whenever we feel like it. I would think, if nothing else, the Tennessee game shows you that we can't. You can run up-tempo and be "balanced" and still end up punting after having the ball for less than 2 minutes. That's certainly possible in this offense. The reason teams go pass-heavy in these types of spots is because, even in this offense, the average pass completion gets at least double the yardage of the average running play. And an incompletion, which gets no yardage, at least stops the clock, as opposed to a running play which gains no yardage, which doesn't. THAT is why teams throw in that spot, and even run-heavy teams do. Because a failed pass attempt stops the clock, and a completed pass attempt, on average, is going to gain significantly more yardage than a running play will. And when you're down 2-3 scores in the 2nd half, the clock is almost as important as your ability to matriculate the ball down the field and score.

Here's my take from a purely analytic standpoint:
Our rushing offense is explosive and untraditional when compared to the rest of the league, but our passing offense is still more effective. EPA (expected points added) is a measure which we can use to analyze how much value a play adds. It accounts for down and distance, which other statistics neglect. Our rushing offense has an EPA of 0.093 - #1 in the league – Titans and Patriots are to some extent close but the rest trail behind. We can conclude our rushing offense is by far the most efficient and is more likely to score. However, our passing offense has an EPA value of 0.125 – 15th in the league – which means our passing offense is better even though we have one of the best rushing offenses ever.

 

[rmcjacket23]

I understand that, I know how football works lol, but see you clearly think I’m only talking about when were in desperation mode, I’m talking about the entire game, because we have went pass happy at times where it just absolutely makes no sense, against KC this year and last year, and Tennessee in the playoffs we went spread and pass heavy almost immediately, against the Eagles and the first game against the bengals we got way too pass happy and the offense looked like absolute shit and we had the lead and it was like wtf are you guys doing, it’s a thing that has happened in a number of games, airing it out when it just doesn’t make sense, it’s not like this is some imaginary thing fans have made up, when the ravens commit to the run (and the OL doesn’t suck) they absolutely roll tf over teams, it’s not a coincidence, we have gotten away from that too many times over the past 2 years.

the past 5 weeks the OL has done better and we have executed much better overall, but the biggest difference in this offense is that with Lamar, gus, and dobbins, we are cranking out explosive runs constantly.

1. Against, Tennessee, we did not go pass-heavy almost immediately. That is something, quite literally, that fans are making up. I literally went play by play in the offseason with this entire board, and identified, AT BEST like 2-3 plays where the Ravens could have run the ball, with the game not already essentially decided. I even challenged people on this board to give me instances, and the most I got was like 1-2 plays. That's just nowhere near enough of a deviation to be complaining about.
2. In the KC game this year, its largely the same thing. There's only one drive I see where I thought the play-calling was odd, and that was when we threw it 3 straight times, down 13-10, early 2nd quarter. That led to a punt, which lead to a 10 point deficit. Before and even the next two drives after that, run/pass was pretty balanced (actually I believe a little run heavy) for pretty much the entirety of the first half.

We then even had a balanced drive right after halftime, where we drove down for a FG to cut the lead to 14. We only really stopped running in early 4th quarter, when we were down 34-20, which I don't think requires explanation. I would have liked to have run the ball more also, but keep in mind, we really didn't even run that many plays in total in that game. One of the lowest of the season for us.

I will concede the Cincinnati game. I pretty much just chalk that up to the entire league thinking Cincinnati had the world's worst secondary and just trying to beat them that way, which obviously they learned from.

What I think fans see is they're like "o you mean we didn't run the ball 40 times today, we must have sucked on offense", and go from there. I would almost suspect that literally any game where the Ravens throw it more than they passed, fans would say "see look, we abandoned the run too quickly". And then when you do like I did, which is slap them over the head with the play calling from the Tennessee game, and make them defend specific play calls, they opt not to do it.

I think you're giving fans way, way, way too much credit for just "not making stuff up". That literally happens all the time.

 

[RavensMania]

I don't even have a problem with the play calling from last year, so why would it be different?

All the people that thought we lost because Roman was "pass happy" or whatever you want to call it should go back and look at how the game unfolded and the play selection. Its a myth that's not supportable with evidence.

Neither Steve nor John are going to fire a guy over one bad game. If Roman's not our OC next season, it'll be because he got a HC gig, or because he doesn't want to be the coach. It won't be because he got fired.

I agree with what you are saying about Roman not being fired over one game. However how do you account for Edwards only getting one carry. He would have done much better than an injured Ingram. I also have no issues with going for it on 4th down on either occasion like some fans do.

 

[rossihunter2]

Here's my take from a purely analytic standpoint:
Our rushing offense is explosive and untraditional when compared to the rest of the league, but our passing offense is still more effective. EPA (expected points added) is a measure which we can use to analyze how much value a play adds. It accounts for down and distance, which other statistics neglect. Our rushing offense has an EPA of 0.093 - #1 in the league – Titans and Patriots are to some extent close but the rest trail behind. We can conclude our rushing offense is by far the most efficient and is more likely to score. However, our passing offense has an EPA value of 0.125 – 15th in the league – which means our passing offense is better even though we have one of the best rushing offenses ever.

further to this - over the last 2 years we are the only team for whom it makes any sense (or has made any sense) to emphasise any sort of running - for most teams running is a wasted play - for us it was a legitimate option on most downs but only because we're running with historic efficiency the last 2 years...

if we weren't running with this sort of efficiency then just like every other team the run starts to look more and more like a wasted play everytime (sort of what it looked like a bit to begin 2020 with Ingram back there)

 

[JoeyFlex5]

1. Against, Tennessee, we did not go pass-heavy almost immediately. That is something, quite literally, that fans are making up. I literally went play by play in the offseason with this entire board, and identified, AT BEST like 2-3 plays where the Ravens could have run the ball, with the game not already essentially decided. I even challenged people on this board to give me instances, and the most I got was like 1-2 plays. That's just nowhere near enough of a deviation to be complaining about.
2. In the KC game this year, its largely the same thing. There's only one drive I see where I thought the play-calling was odd, and that was when we threw it 3 straight times, down 13-10, early 2nd quarter. That led to a punt, which lead to a 10 point deficit. Before and even the next two drives after that, run/pass was pretty balanced (actually I believe a little run heavy) for pretty much the entirety of the first half.

We then even had a balanced drive right after halftime, where we drove down for a FG to cut the lead to 14. We only really stopped running in early 4th quarter, when we were down 34-20, which I don't think requires explanation. I would have liked to have run the ball more also, but keep in mind, we really didn't even run that many plays in total in that game. One of the lowest of the season for us.

I will concede the Cincinnati game. I pretty much just chalk that up to the entire league thinking Cincinnati had the world's worst secondary and just trying to beat them that way, which obviously they learned from.

What I think fans see is they're like "o you mean we didn't run the ball 40 times today, we must have sucked on offense", and go from there. I would almost suspect that literally any game where the Ravens throw it more than they passed, fans would say "see look, we abandoned the run too quickly". And then when you do like I did, which is slap them over the head with the play calling from the Tennessee game, and make them defend specific play calls, they opt not to do it.

I think you're giving fans way, way, way too much credit for just "not making stuff up". That literally happens all the time.

I saw those breakdowns and I largely disagreed then, and even more so now, that we couldn’t run the ball on any of those snaps lol, a traditional offense could not run the ball on most of them, and maybe early in the year when the coaches thought Ingram was the only way to go could we not have run the ball on those downs, but as this team is currently operating we could have run the ball on many of those snaps in your breakdown. I recall a focal point of that breakdown being the big run that was called back due to I believe a bs tripping call on Boyle, which led to 1st and 20, which we followed with 3 straight passes and a punt iirc, why can’t we run on 1st and 20? For a team that can option 2 different runs from the shotgun better than any nfl team in history, I don’t see why running the ball in that situation is an option, penalties getting us behind in the down and distance resulted in many many possessions of 3 straight pass attempts and a punt, and that made up a large part of your breakdown, and I’m sorry I just disagree that 1st and 20, 15, 2nd and 10, etc. are not rushing downs for this team.

Also in your snap breakdown, how many of your counted rush attempts are scrambles on pass plays? Just wondering, because those are passing downs that may or may not be counted differently in the end, which would only help your argument due to a lack of context.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

further to this - over the last 2 years we are the only team for whom it makes any sense (or has made any sense) to emphasise any sort of running - for most teams running is a wasted play - for us it was a legitimate option on most downs but only because we're running with historic efficiency the last 2 years...

if we weren't running with this sort of efficiency then just like every other team the run starts to look more and more like a wasted play everytime (sort of what it looked like a bit to begin 2020 with Ingram back there)

further to this - over the last 2 years we are the only team for whom it makes any sense (or has made any sense) to emphasise any sort of running - for most teams running is a wasted play - for us it was a legitimate option on most downs but only because we're running with historic efficiency the last 2 years...

if we weren't running with this sort of efficiency then just like every other team the run starts to look more and more like a wasted play everytime (sort of what it looked like a bit to begin 2020 with Ingram back there)

This is what I’m trying to get at, this offense needs to be viewed through a different lens, nearly every team outside of Baltimore and Tennessee and Cleveland wants to pass as much as possible, and of those 3 teams, only one is historic with their run game, those teams can run the ball, but the ravens can absolutely march down your throat on the ground and in a hurry, and they make it pay off through the air when it’s balanced.

and ftr, never at any point did I suggest staying on the ground in all situations, only to stay committed to the run, because if were in a 2 minute drill the clock means shit when we throw 3 straight incompletions, take out one of those plays and swap it for a run, that run against a nickel/dime goes for 10+(which is seriously not being respected as far as the frequency of it happening) and bam there’s a new set of downs and the defense is saying “oh shit, one or two more of those and we’re in trouble”.

balance is key with this offense, plain and simple it’s all predicated on our ability to run the ball. Even if we are down, the run has to stay sprinkled in, you can hand it off once and then 3 plays later when you play fake they actually bite on it, no other team can make a defense bite on a play action in the 2 minute drill, and not only are we making them bite to set up the pass, but those play fakes are how we turn 3rd and 1 into huge gains with Lamar’s legs.

this team just does not fall under traditional lines of thinking.

Side note, my problem early season wasn’t with running, it was running Ingram right up the guards ass, over and fucking over again, for a gain of 1, then later giving it to gus or dobbins for 10+ and going right back to Ingram again, that was why it felt like we needed to pass more early on, because Roman and harbaugh had their heads up their asses, which was kinda what folks were saying the whole time.

 

[rmcjacket23]

I saw those breakdowns and I largely disagreed then, and even more so now, that we couldn’t run the ball on any of those snaps lol, a traditional offense could not run the ball on most of them, and maybe early in the year when the coaches thought Ingram was the only way to go could we not have run the ball on those downs, but as this team is currently operating we could have run the ball on many of those snaps in your breakdown. I recall a focal point of that breakdown being the big run that was called back due to I believe a bs tripping call on Boyle, which led to 1st and 20, which we followed with 3 straight passes and a punt iirc, why can’t we run on 1st and 20? For a team that can option 2 different runs from the shotgun better than any nfl team in history, I don’t see why running the ball in that situation is an option, penalties getting us behind in the down and distance resulted in many many possessions of 3 straight pass attempts and a punt, and that made up a large part of your breakdown, and I’m sorry I just disagree that 1st and 20, 15, 2nd and 10, etc. are not rushing downs for this team.

Also in your snap breakdown, how many of your counted rush attempts are scrambles on pass plays? Just wondering, because those are passing downs that may or may not be counted differently in the end, which would only help your argument due to a lack of context.

1. In my breakdown, I believe I counted for "scrambles" as designed pass plays.
2. You can run the ball on 1st and 20. The difference is that I'm assuming they'll get their normal average yards, which would be about five yards. And my guess is... you think they'll break off a 10-15 yard run, putting them with a much more manageable second down.
I think mine is a much more realistic scenario, given that we didn't get of chunk runs on designed runs in that game. Against the Bengals from last week? Sure.

So even assuming we get an average run, that's 2nd and 15. Then its 3rd and 10. Then you're faced with essentially a must-pass situation, or punt.

The reason you pass on 1st and 20 is that, if you get, say, 10-12 yards, which is the average yardage for a Lamar completion, now you're 2nd and 10 or less, and NOW you can think about running the ball. I like running on 2nd and 10 or 2nd and 8 a lot more than I like throwing on 1st and 20... both in this offense or in any offense.

Naturally, I like non holding or tripping penalties, or formational penalties, that allow the playbook to be more open from the beginning. But you can't just call the same plays and not account for what happened before.

 

[rmcjacket23]

I agree with what you are saying about Roman not being fired over one game. However how do you account for Edwards only getting one carry. He would have done much better than an injured Ingram. I also have no issues with going for it on 4th down on either occasion like some fans do.

I obviously can't defend the usage of specific players. But obviously, that's not even the stratosphere of being fired worthy. If that were the case, every coach on the team should be fired, including John, for playing Ingram so much early this year and not getting Dobbins enough touches.

 

[RavensMania]

I obviously can't defend the usage of specific players. But obviously, that's not even the stratosphere of being fired worthy. If that were the case, every coach on the team should be fired, including John, for playing Ingram so much early this year and not getting Dobbins enough touches.

of course not. I wasn't even remotely thinking that, but don't understand why he only had one carry. Not sure why you think I'm saying that.

 

[RavensMania]

@RaineV1 just saw you in a post and haven't seen you all year. Where have you been?

 

[JoeyFlex5]

1. In my breakdown, I believe I counted for "scrambles" as designed pass plays.
2. You can run the ball on 1st and 20. The difference is that I'm assuming they'll get their normal average yards, which would be about five yards. And my guess is... you think they'll break off a 10-15 yard run, putting them with a much more manageable second down.
I think mine is a much more realistic scenario, given that we didn't get of chunk runs on designed runs in that game. Against the Bengals from last week? Sure.

So even assuming we get an average run, that's 2nd and 15. Then its 3rd and 10. Then you're faced with essentially a must-pass situation, or punt.

The reason you pass on 1st and 20 is that, if you get, say, 10-12 yards, which is the average yardage for a Lamar completion, now you're 2nd and 10 or less, and NOW you can think about running the ball. I like running on 2nd and 10 or 2nd and 8 a lot more than I like throwing on 1st and 20... both in this offense or in any offense.

Naturally, I like non holding or tripping penalties, or formational penalties, that allow the playbook to be more open from the beginning. But you can't just call the same plays and not account for what happened before.

So are you saying in point 2 that if our offense is running the ball like it is now that you are much more comfortable with running on 1st and 20 or 2nd and 10? Or am I inferring too much from your “against the bengals last week, sure” quote?

 

[rmcjacket23]

So are you saying in point 2 that if our offense is running the ball like it is now that you are much more comfortable with running on 1st and 20 or 2nd and 10? Or am I inferring too much from your “against the bengals last week, sure” quote?

I think it is 100% dependent on the current matchup and how the game is going. If I'm running the ball like we did against Cincinnati or Dallas, you can run the ball on 1st and 30 for all I care. When Tennessee is being a lot more stingy, and you already know that, I just don't see the point.

I don't think running the ball on 1st and 20 because "we're a good running team" or "because we've been gashing teams all year" is a good answer for anything. Game plans, effectiveness, execution, etc. is a week-to-week thing in this league. I would have thought the Tennessee game showed us that, perhaps above any other. Some of the things that worked for us for months simply weren't working. Both in coaching and in execution, on both sides of the ball. The Patriots dynasty existed, in large part, because that coach never allowed his team to get pigeon-holed into a "we must win this way" mentality.

A decision like play selection is as much predicated on how the current game is going, and what the opposing defense is doing to stop you, as it is how good you are at doing what you do.

 

[UPennChem]

Am I crazy to think there's just no way an NFC team can win the Superbowl this year?

 

[rossihunter2]

Am I crazy to think there's just no way an NFC team can win the Superbowl this year?

tbf that's been going through my brain for weeks - not sure I like any of the teams in the NFC this year - Packers might be good but they also sometimes arent

Chiefs have played down to their opponents in recent weeks but I still don't see how they aren't prohibitive favourites

the real superbowl may well be the AFC Championship game

 

[UPennChem]

tbf that's been going through my brain for weeks - not sure I like any of the teams in the NFC this year - Packers might be good but they also sometimes arent

Chiefs have played down to their opponents in recent weeks but I still don't see how they aren't prohibitive favourites

the real superbowl may well be the AFC Championship game

That's totally what I've been thinking. If you made me choose an NFC team I'd choose green bay, but I wouldn't feel confident.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Am I crazy to think there's just no way an NFC team can win the Superbowl this year?

I wouldn't write it off, but it depends on who the team is.

KC and Buffalo have pretty significant weaknesses on defense that I think just get overlooked because they score so many points.

I could see GB outdueling both of those teams, because I think Rodgers would be pretty comfortable in the pocket against both, and certainly against Buffalo.

Plus like if somebody like Tampa beats both New Orleans and GB, on the road, on their way to a SB, I wouldn't write them off either.

 

[ravenslord]

tbf that's been going through my brain for weeks - not sure I like any of the teams in the NFC this year - Packers might be good but they also sometimes arent

Chiefs have played down to their opponents in recent weeks but I still don't see how they aren't prohibitive favourites

the real superbowl may well be the AFC Championship game

It will be . I'm not a believer in Green Bay yet .Lets see how they do in the playoffs.

 

[rmcjacket23]

It will be . I'm not a believer in Green Bay yet .Lets see how they do in the playoffs.

I think they're going to sleepwalk through the NFC playoffs. I think they'll even handle New Orleans easily.

The stigma of them not being a physical team that gets bullied by other physical teams doesn't appear to have held up in 2020 to me.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

That's totally what I've been thinking. If you made me choose an NFC team I'd choose green bay, but I wouldn't feel confident.

i think pretty highly of green bay, rodgers to me is pretty clearly the mvp, their OL is one of the better units in the league, they run the ball very well, they play good defense at all levels, theyre probably the most well rounded team in the league

 

[rossihunter2]

i think pretty highly of green bay, rodgers to me is pretty clearly the mvp, their OL is one of the better units in the league, they run the ball very well, they play good defense at all levels, theyre probably the most well rounded team in the league

tbf that OL just lost its LT