JAAM
Hall of Famer
I knew that connection was doing well but not THAT well! Had Lamar stayed healthy, Hollywood would've had an insane year. Hopefully we see that next season
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The Random Thought Thread
- Thread starter The Greek
- Start date
i know we stopped touting it, but through the first 9 weeks of the season he was 6th in yards, 13th in receptions, 14th in targets, 8th in TDs
he was outperforming (in counting stats) mark andrews at that point in the season
marklar
Pro Bowler
Agree on what you wrote, but our constant restructuring of almost any bigcontract is almost as much of a chain as voidable years. Not as bad, but when used to the extent the Ravens have done lately, it is not that much difference.
rmcjacket23
Ravens Ring of Honor
Ehh, not really. Void years, by definition, guarantees you have a cap hit for a player who's no longer on the roster.
Restructuring an existing player and converting current cap into future cap just means that player will have a higher cap value in the future. Maybe he's on the roster, maybe he's not.
The void year thing is a relatively new phenomenon in the NFL. We really haven't seen it have a dramatic impact on a franchise yet, because most void-year deals are just now becoming present or are still in the future. A franchise that uses that religiously will get to the point where they'll have at least 15-20% of their total salary cap space being taken up by void year amounts or players they've cut who are no longer making contributions.
That's generally not going to be good for roster management.
The other thing to factor in, specific to the Ravens, is that most of our "big contracts" will eventually get extended again, meaning even if you're pushing cap into the future, once they sign another extension, you can basically spread it out even more.
For example, Marlon will be a UFA at 31. My guess is right around the time his cap hit balloons to nearly $20M (in 2025/2026, when he's 29/30), he'll be signing another extension with the Ravens. His play would have to significantly fall off for that to happen (or a major career injury). Prior to his injury, I would have said the same for Ronnie Stanley. Good chance when he's 30 and has a $24M cap hit, the Ravens will be looking to extend and lower it.
That's why with franchise QBs, the big cap impact you feel never really happens until they're gone, because they're so valuable that the team just perpetually extends them until they retire or are totally washed up basically. In a lot of way, its just one big long contract that gets revised over and over again.
It's why I'm not really concerned about the size of Lamar's deal. Everybody out here talking about not going over $40M and worried about AAV and all of that... it's mostly meaningless. If he's the franchise player you think he is, he's going to be here for another 10 years, minimum. If his cap hit gets too big, they extend him and keep going.
Does anybody really think Pat Mahomes is going to be play the 2023 season with a $46.8M cap hit? I'm not certain he's even going to play 2022 with a $35.8M cap hit. Most of that cap hit is tied up to a roster bonus, which they can easily convert to a signing bonus, and spread it out over 5 years.
Void years is just putting cap hits on people who provide zero output.
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rmcjacket23
Ravens Ring of Honor
Right its more about them not valuing QUANTITY of draft picks. The Ravens seemingly want the max number of picks they can get every year. And that's a strategy that has generally worked out.
The Rams view themselves as a team that basically just needs to add depth to upgrade. They're not loaded at every position, but they also don't have a ton of weaknesses. So if they have a first or second round pick (late one's at that), are those players going to come in and start right away? Not likely. They have no issue taking a bunch of guys in day 2 and day 3, because those guys can be depth players or situational players that can help them out, while using high draft picks to obtain players that are difference makers.
That being said, they're trades have also universally worked out, which is pretty rare. Very few teams can pull off the kinds of deals they're doing and those players still shine the way they envisioned them.
the rams value quantity as well - they value comp picks and trading down to acquire more picks just like the ravens do
the 2 key differences in approach are probably...
1) their approach to 1st round picks and their value in acquiring superstar type talents - apparently was a specific philosophy borne out of being a good team and thinking about the value of late 1st round picks vs tried and tested veteran talent
2) where the ravens are looking at day 3 as a scouts day to try and unearth overlooked talents and potential gems etc. and trusting their scouts to do a better job than other teams, the rams are looking for specific complementary traits where they're less worried about a guy's weaknesses if he has the specific strengths that fit the position in their scheme (e.g. they literally dont give a shit about blocking in TEs)
in some ways that 2nd point really isnt that dissimilar to the ravens, just a slight philosophical difference in terms of identifying 1 or 2 traits per position that they value and seeking those traits - where the ravens are often looking for more than just 1 or 2 traits
I think my big "issue" with the idea of draft pick hoarding is that it allows us to be more aggressive to gets guys we want, but we remain passive in that regard. I don't know how many times we've heard that we were about to pick player X and he was picked like 5 or so picks before us and we had to settle elsewhere. I'm all about adding young talent to the team and having lots of draft picks is certainly the best way to do that, but I think you also have to realize that not every one of those picks are going to hit. If there's a guy you like, go get him. Sure, maybe we miss out on a Orlando Brown or something like that in the 3rd if we move up, but the much more likely reality is that you miss out on a Jaylon Ferguson or a Bronson Kaufusi. And to be clear, I also think this extends beyond just round 1. I'd rather draft 1 and hit on 1 than draft 2 and miss on 2.
i think the problem is that with how much of a lottery the draft is, the data has shown that the guy you trade up for is statistically no more likely to be a hit than the guy you stayed at your spot for - now obviously you have to trust your grades and if there's a big grade disparity and you're not sure the guy's gonna make it to you then you have to move up (which i guess is what happened with miles boykin... which obviously didnt work out but also with Lamar which has obviously worked out insanely well and we gave up a future pick to get back into the 2020 class and take proche too)
EDC said before the 2020 draft if there was anyone he'd trade up for if they got in some sort of reasonable range and he said chase young and that's basically it - if you're trading up (especially in round 1) you have to be almost 100% certain that the guy is who you think he is
and that's the reason why you hoard lots of draft picks - exactly for the reason you said - they realise not all those guys are going to be hits... so the more guys you take the more likely you are to find someone
obviously it didnt work out in 2019 where the day 3 (and day 2 as well lol) portion of that draft hasnt really panned out and we're lucky we got backup level guard play from ben powers, some special teams value from justice hill and found mekari as a udfa)
and we havent found any "true" starters from our day 3 picks the last 3 years yet - but there's some promising depth and rotational pieces with broderick washington, james proche and geno stone in 2020 and tylan wallace and daelin hayes in 2021 - it's still early enough that those guys have a chance to develop and earn more snaps and carve out roles for themselves
Agreed to an extent. You know I'm all about trusting the grades and I get the concept that more picks gives you a better chance at those hits. And I also know it's hindsight talking to an extent because we know some of the guys we've passed on trading up for in the past. But I also feel that sometimes we get too content in letting the board fall to us. I look at last year when it was widely reported after the fact that Spencer Brown was someone we loved. But instead, we let the board fall to us and ended up with Ben Cleveland. Could Cleveland still be good? Absolutely, but I don't think there was much debate that Brown had more value from a positional standpoint and the cost to go get him wouldn't have been prohibitive. If you love the guy as much as it was reported that we did, make a move.
Now of course, I understand that reports are just that and maybe we didn't love Brown as much as was stated, but I also think we have a track record of scenarios where a guy we liked was picked just before us and the cost to go get that guy wouldn't have been much.
im pretty sure nothing's ever actually come out about spencer brown - by all accounts it sounded like Harbs was trying to get EDC to trade up for ben cleveland - the speculation about spencer brown has all been fan led as far as im aware
spencer brown would have been a slam dunk pick - but just not sure the ravens were ever actually interested
There were reports leading up to the draft that we loved him. Wish I could tell you who but that's asking me to remember something from a year ago which is basically impossible.
But that was just one to illustrate my point. We know there have been others.
the only other somewhat recent one i can think of is cooper kupp
drjohnnyfever
Pro Bowler
...you've done nothing to convince me.
John inherited a pretty good group with an existing coaching staff that he rode for 2-3 seasons and did well with them. His only Super Bowl came after he was FORCED to intervene after an underperforming OFF almost derailed what turned out to be a Super Bowl season. You can chalk that up in large measure to Jim Caldwell pulling from the Peyton Manning playbook of maximizing effective plays. ...Pitta down the seam - TD. ...AQ down the seam - TD. We rode that little play, that Jim Caldwell dialed up - plus a couple lucky ass, right place, right time plays - right to a ring.
When that team went south so did the record. It wasn't until Kubiak got us back on track for a season, but without that year - in the middle of surrounding failures - he would have been fired, before Flacco and the terrible OFF that, again FORCED his hand to transition to Lamar - who was still looked at as mostly a potential WR and flex option at the QB. If JH had rode out Joe Flacco after his "injury" he'd have been shown the door.
BTW, when I say FORCED it could be one of two things. Either he had sense enough to know failure meant being fired and acted on his own OR he was told to do it and then rode the wave.
I have no doubt that he would get snapped up on the open market. it's my belief that he would prove an average to below average HC if given a team that was not already set to achieve. But getting snapped up is not the measure of a good coach.
Sean Payton would put this OFF group that we have now, back at putting up 40 a game. It will never happen, tho. And he also would not be married to friends when trying to fill out other coaching positions. If Marc Trestman isn't enough evidence to show JH's failure in coaching talent decisions nothing is.
edit: and if Lamar isn't a better Drew Brees at his age then you are delusional. JH has greater talent - in Lamar - and has done little to ensure it develops.
this is patently bullshit - the ravens always viewed lamar as a QB and only a QB
UPennChem
Hall of Famer
Respectfully, this is a wild take
rmcjacket23
Ravens Ring of Honor
1. He didn't inherit Flacco or Rice. Without those guys, where would the team have been? Are you under the impression that the 2007 roster was solid, because it wasn't. You're going to try to tell me that because they had Ray and Ed and Suggs they should have been great every year, even though nobody believes that's actually true.
A change in leadership, plus personnel upgrades, is what that team needed.
2. John's transition off Joe coincided with the timeframe of his contract when he actually could. This isn't rocket science. He really couldn't have transitioned off of him any sooner than he did, without massive salary cap implications. You can largely blame Ozzie for that one, since he's the one that decided to backload the crap out of the first contract and all but requiring it to be extended after the 2015 season, which it was.
There is one thing in your post that I honestly can't stay laughing at, and it's the final sentence. And what's funny about it is... its pretty clear you're not very familiar with Sean Payton.
So here's a couple things that are kind of going to obliterate the whole "he's not married to friends" thing:
1. Marc Trestman was fired by the Ravens in 2006. In 2007, he spent a full season as an offensive consultant to... Sean Payton. Yes, that Sean Payton. Harbaugh is trash for hiring Trestman, but Payton is smart for hiring him apparently. In your words... "yeah, you've done nothing to convince me".
2. He re-hired Doug Marrone just this offseason, after he spent three years as an Oline coach with Payton previously in NO. So not only does he lean on his friends, but he re-hires them for gigs they already had long after they've washed out of the league and returned to college.
And then there's Dennis Allen, the current HC and former DC for seven years, is in his second stint in NO. He was a secondary and Dline coach for awhile there also.
For those keeping track at home, during Allen's tenure as DC:
2015: 31st in YPG allowed, 32nd in PPG allowed
2016: 27th in YPG allowed, 31st in PPG allowed
2017: 17th in YPG allowed, 10th in PPG allowed
2018: 14th in YPG allowed, 14th in PPG allowed
2019: 11th in YPG allowed, 13th in PPG allowed
That's two years of dreadful defenses, and three years of mediocre defenses. And Payton didn't fire him, but apparently, he's not married to guys either. Riiiiight. If Dennis Allen were the DC of the Ravens, and put up back-to-back defensive seasons like he did, or even a five year stretch like he did, YOU, and the rest of the fanbase, would have wanted everybody fired, from GM to HC and certainly the DC. We want Oline coaches fired after one bad season, let alone five years of mediocrity. But Sean would never do that because he's not "married to people". Riiiight.
The most prominent members of the Sean Payton coaching tree include Dan Campbell, Dennis Allen, Doug Marrone, and Marc Trestman.
Ain't exactly murderers row out here.
I'm sure Sean Payton would do better with Lamar. I would expect him to. He has an offensive background. I also know Sean Payton spent 14 years with Drew Brees, managed to go 9-8 in the playoffs during that time, win the exact same amount of Lombardi's as Harbaugh (in a longer timeframe) and have three playoff wins in his last 8 years. With Drew Brees...
Tank
Hall of Famer
Haha! I bet that cigar tasted much better than the one Burrow smoked.
JoeyFlex5
Hall of Famer
Not too many guys more deserving. I’ve always been a big stafford fan and I love seeing it lol
Agree 150%. You can just go back to Joe Flacco's original deal where everyone was complaining about his deal when in fact he didn't play on the 20m deal until maybe year 3 when it was going to get restructured anyway. His first two years weren't expensive at all.