I've decided to go through and look at all of the team's situations. And looking at all of this. My concerns have kind of eased. I expect a few teams to take some declines going forward.
I think we can and should beat.
Denver(even if they get Cousins they'll have to sacrifice a few key pieces to get him),
Tampa Bay(lots of cap space sure but there's not a lot of depth on the team despite their being some nice pieces)
Cleveland(even if they're a QB away and have more cap room than everyone they're unlikely to be a juggernaut immediately. Even if they substantially improve this wouldn't be the first time we've seen them fuck up an offseason with a ton of cap room. I think they're still beatable especially with a rookie given all the questions they have on defense). I wouldn't be surprised if we beat them twice again.
Oakland is beatable. Even if Carr should return to form with the injury they have way too many holes on defense for them to be a threat. Sure, Mack is great, but he's one man. They don't have the resources to do an overhaul of their defense either.
Cincinatti is notoriously cheap and is unlikely to participate in FA despite them having some holes on the offensive line and on the defensive side of the ball, instead they'll probably try to build through the draft and resign their own guys. They're still a few steps away. We should be able to win at least one against them.
Buffalo is beatable given Shady's injury and the fact that the oline just took a massive hit. They have some cap room and two first round picks to play with, sure. But they're still a QB away form being a legit threat but they have a good amount of issues that I might expect a decline from them despite their fluke playoff appearance.
I could see a few teams decline too.
Carolina is an easy decline candidate. Their defense has a few nice pieces in the front 7 but the secondary is concerning and the oline is about to become a total joke when Norwell leaves. They have uncertainty on the offense as well and they don't have too much cap room. They lack a lot of depth as well. Plus, they're an inconsistent team usually so I could see us beating them.
The Steelers are a decline candidate. The dline is nice, and Watt is a solid prospect, but the LB corps is very lacking, the secondary is a joke, and even if they cut Mitchell and Haden to open up some room the FA market at CB and S is kind of bare and they're unlikely to get a quality option. The offense will be nice, but with the right moves we should be able to score on them. I could see them have a worse season next year easily. I could see us having a season where we take a game from them, possibly two if we can make the right moves.
Chiefs are decline candidates as well. They have some really nice pieces on the offensive side of the ball skills department wise, but lack of cap room + lack of quality offensive line could show some concern. Not to mention the defensive line is lacking. Houston is great but he's one man. Berry returning will be nice, but who else is around him? Mahomes will basically be a rookie and will still have to get used to seeing NFL defenses.
There are certainly games that do scare me. I don't see us beating New Orleans. Atlanta will be tough since we are going there, but Sark might hold them back again. San Diego might be my favorites for the SB depending on what they do in the offseason. Titans are a total wildcard.
I could easily see a season from us where we beat
TB
CLE(2)
DEN
CIN(1)
PIT(1)
OAK
BUF
KC
CAR
That's a 10 win season. In the AFC that's a wildcard spot with how pathetic it is.
We'd have to make the right moves.. But it's certainly doable.